{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f0277727-c11b-45a6-bb26-5dd0f3509fdc", "symbol": "ADVE", "name": "Advenica AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 66.086, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -24.953, "architecture_energy": 54.547, "architecture_maturity": 7.976, "architecture_confidence": 74.97, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.61, "rotation_up": 15.09, "upward_expansion": 27.15, "deceleration": 49.32, "rotation_down": 65.53, "downward_expansion": 54.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.010667, 17.72, 19.115287, 18.886349 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 17.74, "trend_reference": 18.667706, "distance_from_trend": -0.049696, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.733524, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.204057, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.376325, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.057248, "excess_performance": -0.118742, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.049696, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037916, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.204057, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.432861, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.133763, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.18685, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.057248, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.790318, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 119827, "relative_activity": 0.40955, "balance": 0.790318, "dry_up": 0.623248, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.111092, "annualized_volatility": 0.616525, "from_high_reference": -0.392466, "from_low_reference": 0.373518 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.667706, "fair_value_reference": 14.733524, "structural_low": 12.915741, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.062212, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.039669, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.14094, "worst_return": -0.190805, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.14185, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.116745, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.163311, "worst_return": -0.244399, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.031149, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.05588, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.485463, "worst_return": -0.223014, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.073227, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.114053, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.257576, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.103773, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.091667, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 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19.42616 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 19.52, "volume": 16967, "typical_volume": 309533.55, "trend": 18.844075, "fair_value": 14.507816, "relative_strength": -8.664259, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.03415, "energy": 16.99658, "activity_lines": [ 19.636, 20.362545, 20.117941, 19.480723 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 17.780001, "volume": 187267, "typical_volume": 307791.7, "trend": 18.945281, "fair_value": 14.551069, "relative_strength": -13.746714, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.202178, "energy": 9.569244, "activity_lines": [ 19.045334, 19.720545, 20.004063, 19.412073 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.4, "volume": 335802, "typical_volume": 309437.0, "trend": 18.883915, "fair_value": 14.589917, "relative_strength": -18.402562, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.635241, "energy": 25.870299, "activity_lines": [ 18.094667, 18.965273, 19.753571, 19.247861 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.360001, "volume": 157853, "typical_volume": 303455.9, "trend": 18.81128, "fair_value": 14.633265, "relative_strength": -19.004032, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.455291, "energy": 45.561403, "activity_lines": [ 17.318667, 18.320909, 19.493276, 19.085028 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.700001, "volume": 115922, "typical_volume": 300170.75, "trend": 18.70825, "fair_value": 14.678285, "relative_strength": -17.576616, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.928095, "energy": 58.369357, "activity_lines": [ 16.881334, 17.863637, 19.258422, 18.948816 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.74, "volume": 119827, "typical_volume": 292581.8, "trend": 18.667706, "fair_value": 14.733524, "relative_strength": -13.376325, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.95347, "energy": 54.546884, "activity_lines": [ 17.010667, 17.72, 19.115287, 18.886349 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }