{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f02cc2d6-aca4-41f8-8115-766c5a4eef64", "symbol": "SMBS", "name": "SCHWAB MORTGAGE-BACKED SECURITIES ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 61.916, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.611, "architecture_energy": 60.657, "architecture_maturity": 4.738, "architecture_confidence": 88.867, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.24, "rotation_up": 10.89, "upward_expansion": 13.4, "deceleration": 37.64, "rotation_down": 68.4, "downward_expansion": 89.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.978389, 25.066021, 25.132415, 25.179519 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 25.005, "trend_reference": 25.237867, "distance_from_trend": -0.009227, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 24.502691, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.0205, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.293143, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.01242, "excess_performance": -0.138045, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.009227, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000568, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.0205, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01765, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.112931, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019963, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.01242, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.718721, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2675527, "relative_activity": 0.759651, "balance": 0.718721, "dry_up": 0.705158, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.009637, "annualized_volatility": 0.047403, "from_high_reference": -0.026534, "from_low_reference": 0.03296 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.237867, "fair_value_reference": 24.502691, "structural_low": 24.7851, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.013349, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.004061, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-11-22", "close": 23.326064, "volume": 42815, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-11-29", "close": 23.596359, "volume": 47045, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, 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"relative_strength": -8.066946, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.490056, "energy": 54.20356, "activity_lines": [ 25.065378, 25.138631, 25.177858, 25.217809 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.903868, "volume": 2143131, "typical_volume": 3560040.95, "trend": 25.247686, "fair_value": 24.497047, "relative_strength": -8.84324, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.503217, "energy": 63.877629, "activity_lines": [ 24.98781, 25.091779, 25.149522, 25.195176 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.005, "volume": 2675527, "typical_volume": 3522046.65, "trend": 25.237867, "fair_value": 24.502691, "relative_strength": -11.293143, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.61122, "energy": 60.65685, "activity_lines": [ 24.978389, 25.066021, 25.132415, 25.179519 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }