{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "f02dd713-9c94-43a7-a208-ba7629985c0e",
    "symbol": "ES3",
    "name": "State Street SPDR Straits Times Index ETF",
    "exchange": "SES",
    "country": "SG",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^STI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 83.739,
    "architecture_energy": 93.321,
    "architecture_maturity": 44.319,
    "architecture_confidence": 71.586,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 0.0,
        "rotation_up": 87.57,
        "upward_expansion": 99.66,
        "deceleration": 39.13,
        "rotation_down": 8.28,
        "downward_expansion": 21.66
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        5.7142,
        5.572673,
        5.377686,
        5.262109
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 1.0
    },
    "latest_close": 5.79,
    "trend_reference": 5.128472,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.128991,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 3.826529,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.513121,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 1.196917,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.173172,
    "excess_performance": 0.018337,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.128991,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.06053,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.513121,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.133978,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.011969,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.007047,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.173172,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 6.59471,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 7442519,
      "relative_activity": 1.309899,
      "balance": 6.59471,
      "dry_up": 1.180211,
      "accumulation_observations": 6,
      "distribution_observations": 0
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.021722,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.103147,
      "from_high_reference": -0.004299,
      "from_low_reference": 0.392275
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 5.128472,
      "fair_value_reference": 3.826529,
      "structural_low": 4.705,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 43,
        "median_return": 0.009357,
        "positive_rate": 0.674419,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.674419,
        "median_excess_return": 0.001697,
        "regime_survival": 0.767442,
        "best_return": 0.087891,
        "worst_return": -0.0482,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 16,
        "median_return": 0.060774,
        "positive_rate": 0.8125,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.8125,
        "median_excess_return": 0.010837,
        "regime_survival": 0.75,
        "best_return": 0.115534,
        "worst_return": -0.050029,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": 0.083565,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": 0.018837,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.191243,
        "worst_return": -0.019618,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.157004,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.047162,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
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        "worst_return": 0.005398,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
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        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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        "end": "2023-07-28",
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        "return": 0.046412,
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      },
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
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        "end": "2023-12-22",
        "tenure": "Developing",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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        "end": "2024-03-29",
        "tenure": "Established",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2024-08-30",
        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      {
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "typical_volume": 6381351.65,
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        "fair_value": 3.773607,
        "relative_strength": 1.430007,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Established expansion",
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
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        "typical_volume": 5866011.9,
        "trend": 5.057196,
        "fair_value": 3.790648,
        "relative_strength": 1.05347,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Established expansion",
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        "direction": 89.461731,
        "energy": 95.988798,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 5.751,
        "volume": 7289072,
        "typical_volume": 5601436.05,
        "trend": 5.093429,
        "fair_value": 3.808507,
        "relative_strength": 1.818,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 88.550098,
        "energy": 95.683063,
        "activity_lines": [
          5.645267,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 5.79,
        "volume": 7442519,
        "typical_volume": 5681748.2,
        "trend": 5.128472,
        "fair_value": 3.826529,
        "relative_strength": 1.196917,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 83.738745,
        "energy": 93.321283,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}