{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f030e6a8-f948-441e-a17a-64cb531995d1", "symbol": "83115", "name": "iShares Asia Trust - iShares Core Hang Seng Index ETF", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 60.787, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -5.29, "architecture_energy": 31.082, "architecture_maturity": 99.244, "architecture_confidence": 60.761, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.51, "rotation_up": 49.49, "upward_expansion": 29.58, "deceleration": 41.33, "rotation_down": 15.94, "downward_expansion": 52.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 80.212, 78.292158, 78.709497, 79.615277 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 81.0, "trend_reference": 81.248098, "distance_from_trend": -0.003054, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 69.377594, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.167524, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.426552, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.056823, "excess_performance": -0.023242, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.003054, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032117, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.167524, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060629, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.024266, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01056, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.056823, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023871, "annualized_volatility": 0.147207, "from_high_reference": -0.106183, "from_low_reference": 0.126251 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 81.248098, "fair_value_reference": 69.377594, "structural_low": 71.919998, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.002462, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.000288, "regime_survival": 0.884615, "best_return": 0.132946, "worst_return": -0.175, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.039722, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.003585, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.149829, "worst_return": -0.099959, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.072683, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.003136, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.110132, "worst_return": -0.099573, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"relative_strength": -2.06888, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.704029, "energy": 64.785608, "activity_lines": [ 75.852001, 76.423204, 78.350206, 79.766135 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 79.419998, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1390.0, "trend": 81.508765, "fair_value": 69.100487, "relative_strength": -1.799247, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.551097, "energy": 36.65986, "activity_lines": [ 77.26, 76.780316, 78.33724, 79.62015 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 81.82, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1375.0, "trend": 81.386765, "fair_value": 69.239741, "relative_strength": -2.343992, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.443569, "energy": 26.245788, "activity_lines": [ 79.202667, 77.621542, 78.561987, 79.64023 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 81.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 5.0, "trend": 81.248098, "fair_value": 69.377594, "relative_strength": -2.426552, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.289624, "energy": 31.082352, "activity_lines": [ 80.212, 78.292158, 78.709497, 79.615277 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }