{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f032dced-bb5c-465e-9ee3-71953f11f33c", "symbol": "IBTM", "name": "ISHARES IBONDS DEC 2032 TERM TREASURY ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 49.167, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.774, "architecture_energy": 53.992, "architecture_maturity": 24.613, "architecture_confidence": 88.964, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.99, "rotation_up": 14.51, "upward_expansion": 11.05, "deceleration": 39.96, "rotation_down": 63.26, "downward_expansion": 86.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.418093, 22.468108, 22.514253, 22.571874 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 22.47, "trend_reference": 22.643546, "distance_from_trend": -0.007664, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 21.573792, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.041542, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.369411, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.012958, "excess_performance": -0.200411, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.007664, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003106, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.041542, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016063, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.133694, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030199, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.012958, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.614435, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 869044, "relative_activity": 1.38172, "balance": 1.614435, "dry_up": 0.899789, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.008075, "annualized_volatility": 0.044702, "from_high_reference": -0.029659, "from_low_reference": 0.01431 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.643546, "fair_value_reference": 21.573792, 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.024672, "energy": 51.6007, "activity_lines": [ 22.460887, 22.503974, 22.545804, 22.603478 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.354765, "volume": 443112, "typical_volume": 615038.95, "trend": 22.651604, "fair_value": 21.55962, "relative_strength": -9.796772, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.998244, "energy": 61.707752, "activity_lines": [ 22.408564, 22.474953, 22.523627, 22.583591 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.47, "volume": 869044, "typical_volume": 628958.05, "trend": 22.643546, "fair_value": 21.573792, "relative_strength": -13.369411, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.773528, "energy": 53.991923, "activity_lines": [ 22.418093, 22.468108, 22.514253, 22.571874 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }