{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f03404f7-c413-484c-ae91-509a63892656", "symbol": "145670", "name": "Kindex Inverse ETF", "exchange": "KSC", "country": "KR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^KS11", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -31.496, "architecture_energy": 25.648, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 69.353, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.49, "rotation_up": 32.08, "upward_expansion": 20.68, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 19.6, "downward_expansion": 54.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 1392.466667, 1320.4, 1353.514286, 1503.109677 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 1433.0, "trend_reference": 1738.9, "distance_from_trend": -0.175916, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4458.794872, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.678613, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -60.341037, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.411499, "excess_performance": -0.641328, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.175916, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.26779, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.678613, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018992, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.60341, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.189569, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.411499, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.899688, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1321277, "relative_activity": 1.162923, "balance": 0.899688, "dry_up": 1.394331, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.12239, "annualized_volatility": 0.482939, "from_high_reference": -0.681909, "from_low_reference": 0.376561 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1738.9, "fair_value_reference": 4458.794872, "structural_low": 1041.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.029178, "positive_rate": 0.258065, "directional_follow_through": 0.741935, "median_excess_return": -0.063854, "regime_survival": 0.870968, "best_return": 0.279778, "worst_return": -0.230681, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.025974, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.049421, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.100868, "worst_return": -0.384279, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.035714, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.046929, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.077007, "worst_return": -0.608734, "sufficient": true 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-08-25", "end": "2023-10-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.038128, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-10-13", "end": "2023-10-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.025619, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-10-27", "end": "2023-11-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.071832, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-11-24", "end": "2023-12-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.027145, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-12-22", "end": "2024-01-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.044995, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": 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"direction": -31.496379, "energy": 25.647548, "activity_lines": [ 1392.466667, 1320.4, 1353.514286, 1503.109677 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }