{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f0380d41-9127-47ba-b239-6eedf3095075", "symbol": "NMS", "name": "Nuveen Minnesota Quality Municipal Income Fund", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 95.675, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -25.129, "architecture_energy": 37.692, "architecture_maturity": 6.336, "architecture_confidence": 68.101, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.7, "rotation_up": 23.08, "upward_expansion": 27.56, "deceleration": 45.43, "rotation_down": 56.7, "downward_expansion": 43.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.770445, 11.921109, 12.00772, 11.986014 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 11.58, "trend_reference": 11.928381, "distance_from_trend": -0.029206, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.689033, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.083353, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.457283, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.016693, "excess_performance": -0.142318, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.029206, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015146, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.083353, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.087805, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.114573, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.077276, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.016693, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.887713, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 182602, "relative_activity": 2.590575, "balance": 0.887713, "dry_up": 1.851095, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029876, "annualized_volatility": 0.11132, "from_high_reference": -0.0736, "from_low_reference": 0.094546 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.928381, "fair_value_reference": 10.689033, "structural_low": 11.21, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.011856, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.028675, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.065441, "worst_return": -0.178972, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.046151, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.016269, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.085458, "worst_return": -0.189331, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.058966, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.032423, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.113723, "worst_return": 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"typical_volume": 60622.95, "trend": 11.919859, "fair_value": 10.657085, "relative_strength": -3.425584, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.150592, "energy": 25.877568, "activity_lines": [ 12.152079, 12.142979, 12.109138, 12.040355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.42, "volume": 192278, "typical_volume": 66104.95, "trend": 11.922421, "fair_value": 10.672333, "relative_strength": -9.814959, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.983091, "energy": 20.23737, "activity_lines": [ 11.917331, 12.011424, 12.050189, 12.008106 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.58, "volume": 182602, "typical_volume": 70487.05, "trend": 11.928381, "fair_value": 10.689033, "relative_strength": -11.457283, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.12938, "energy": 37.692315, "activity_lines": [ 11.770445, 11.921109, 12.00772, 11.986014 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }