{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f03aaab6-88dd-4d52-9817-52aa427eb20c", "symbol": "3032", "name": "Hang Seng Investment Index Funds Series - Hang Seng Tech Index ETF", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -20.203, "architecture_energy": 15.672, "architecture_maturity": 98.021, "architecture_confidence": 59.91, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.7, "rotation_up": 35.83, "upward_expansion": 22.11, "deceleration": 41.04, "rotation_down": 20.64, "downward_expansion": 53.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.756133, 4.670727, 4.721729, 4.786886 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 4.852, "trend_reference": 4.9394, "distance_from_trend": -0.017694, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.590746, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.056909, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.257003, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.08797, "excess_performance": -0.054389, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.017694, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.061087, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.056909, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06455, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.08257, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015119, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.08797, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.476157, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 239643394, "relative_activity": 1.284978, "balance": 1.476157, "dry_up": 1.71133, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.053348, "annualized_volatility": 0.22835, "from_high_reference": -0.27528, "from_low_reference": 0.148131 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.9394, "fair_value_reference": 4.590746, "structural_low": 4.226, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.029711, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.000296, "regime_survival": 0.761905, "best_return": 0.188772, "worst_return": -0.132643, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.011921, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.004186, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.170159, "worst_return": -0.166667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.048178, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.018563, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.046617, "worst_return": -0.077416, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"relative_strength": -9.838805, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.426994, "energy": 46.129326, "activity_lines": [ 4.562933, 4.6152, 4.723576, 4.831314 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.626, "volume": 368240837, "typical_volume": 173821845.25, "trend": 4.996167, "fair_value": 4.584567, "relative_strength": -10.592477, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.955752, "energy": 33.357807, "activity_lines": [ 4.5952, 4.604509, 4.708462, 4.805617 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.82, "volume": 332773455, "typical_volume": 182335283.7, "trend": 4.966167, "fair_value": 4.58681, "relative_strength": -9.87642, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.224085, "energy": 17.807095, "activity_lines": [ 4.689333, 4.634473, 4.713243, 4.794252 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.852, "volume": 239643394, "typical_volume": 186496061.2, "trend": 4.9394, "fair_value": 4.590746, "relative_strength": -8.257003, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.203227, "energy": 15.671844, "activity_lines": [ 4.756133, 4.670727, 4.721729, 4.786886 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }