{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f0403d8b-240c-44d0-87d7-e19d1ffc0b4f", "symbol": "GSEP", "name": "FT VEST U.S. EQUITY MODERATE BUFFER ETF - SEPTEMBER", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 57.456, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 86.331, "architecture_energy": 83.075, "architecture_maturity": 42.563, "architecture_confidence": 81.489, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.41, "rotation_up": 66.35, "upward_expansion": 93.05, "deceleration": 46.04, "rotation_down": 25.37, "downward_expansion": 17.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 41.310613, 41.130753, 40.820377, 40.357354 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 41.64, "trend_reference": 39.826727, "distance_from_trend": 0.045529, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 35.602203, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.169591, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.169395, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.065779, "excess_performance": -0.059846, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.045529, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0209, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.169591, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018645, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.051694, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003872, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.065779, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.364491, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 270436, "relative_activity": 0.756371, "balance": 3.364491, "dry_up": 0.369343, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.00862, "annualized_volatility": 0.062606, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.116055 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 39.826727, "fair_value_reference": 35.602203, "structural_low": 37.395, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.010101, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.005525, "regime_survival": 0.923077, "best_return": 0.020872, "worst_return": -0.014323, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.023264, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.008286, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.03586, "worst_return": -0.013918, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.054866, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.042479, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.05567, "worst_return": 0.054061, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 40.989333, 40.873142, 40.450649, 40.037708 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 41.0, "volume": 139490, "typical_volume": 355245.2, "trend": 39.65765, "fair_value": 35.523426, "relative_strength": -2.622065, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.39192, "energy": 80.515082, "activity_lines": [ 41.013333, 40.912402, 40.556484, 40.128735 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 41.3023, "volume": 47384, "typical_volume": 351628.55, "trend": 39.74106, "fair_value": 35.561951, "relative_strength": -2.812947, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.516723, "energy": 82.110697, "activity_lines": [ 41.129433, 40.997171, 40.679491, 40.234841 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 41.64, "volume": 270436, "typical_volume": 357543.9, "trend": 39.826727, "fair_value": 35.602203, "relative_strength": -5.169395, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.33055, "energy": 83.074735, "activity_lines": [ 41.310613, 41.130753, 40.820377, 40.357354 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }