{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f0421bf4-2a69-4ead-8a2f-07b0e7be743a", "symbol": "6021", "name": "Good Finance Securities Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 13.872, "architecture_energy": 17.109, "architecture_maturity": 69.036, "architecture_confidence": 85.423, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.94, "rotation_up": 20.52, "upward_expansion": 47.31, "deceleration": 84.89, "rotation_down": 37.97, "downward_expansion": 27.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 35.519999, 36.760908, 36.83752, 35.353768 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 37.049999, "trend_reference": 33.362546, "distance_from_trend": 0.110527, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.07058, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.758376, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.937655, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.300708, "excess_performance": -0.140664, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.110527, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.160098, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.758376, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.094438, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.039377, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053346, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.300708, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.269752, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 756806, "relative_activity": 0.450954, "balance": 1.269752, "dry_up": 0.373508, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.11035, "annualized_volatility": 0.502237, "from_high_reference": -0.165541, "from_low_reference": 0.980329 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.362546, "fair_value_reference": 21.07058, "structural_low": 27.128073, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.042336, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": 0.022321, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.197646, "worst_return": -0.067009, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.183336, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.033224, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.469427, "worst_return": -0.061273, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.154297, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.075877, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.70954, "worst_return": -0.076038, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.010121, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.063193, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.065534, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.068182, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.052521, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": 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34.634829 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 35.700001, "volume": 612015, "typical_volume": 1741549.85, "trend": 32.292621, "fair_value": 20.632378, "relative_strength": -2.930028, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.420317, "energy": 23.880776, "activity_lines": [ 37.646667, 38.763636, 36.733239, 34.881745 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 34.099998, "volume": 794914, "typical_volume": 1722886.75, "trend": 32.654422, "fair_value": 20.773008, "relative_strength": -6.100056, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.338593, "energy": 21.113383, "activity_lines": [ 36.226666, 37.922727, 36.696189, 34.99835 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 34.099998, "volume": 343599, "typical_volume": 1671304.4, "trend": 32.986601, "fair_value": 20.912859, "relative_strength": -8.395679, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.37582, "energy": 19.878982, "activity_lines": [ 35.166666, 37.048181, 36.637744, 35.091613 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 37.049999, "volume": 756806, "typical_volume": 1678234.45, "trend": 33.362546, "fair_value": 21.07058, "relative_strength": -3.937655, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.871526, "energy": 17.108739, "activity_lines": [ 35.519999, 36.760908, 36.83752, 35.353768 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }