{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f056a489-506b-459a-a2c1-5d5a0d9e1426", "symbol": "600835", "name": "Shanghai Mechanical & Electrical Industry Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.035, "architecture_energy": 67.649, "architecture_maturity": 55.409, "architecture_confidence": 88.192, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.01, "rotation_up": 11.58, "upward_expansion": 14.77, "deceleration": 38.9, "rotation_down": 63.8, "downward_expansion": 83.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.918667, 19.725231, 20.988671, 21.914581 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 19.059999, "trend_reference": 23.606998, "distance_from_trend": -0.192612, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.588921, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.025342, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.192062, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.297974, "excess_performance": -0.25477, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.192612, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.099944, "read": "Falling" 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17.43, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.015435, "positive_rate": 0.52, "directional_follow_through": 0.48, "median_excess_return": 0.001074, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.319266, "worst_return": -0.147073, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.021008, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.010221, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.835138, "worst_return": -0.172199, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.028059, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.012985, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.119148, "worst_return": -0.092669, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"direction": -74.113241, "energy": 49.981999, "activity_lines": [ 20.654774, 21.155951, 22.029289, 23.023828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.440001, "volume": 38524996, "typical_volume": 37185461.35, "trend": 24.299665, "fair_value": 18.523318, "relative_strength": -29.323894, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.633319, "energy": 65.226569, "activity_lines": [ 19.45541, 20.360077, 21.542432, 22.56114 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.190001, "volume": 39193271, "typical_volume": 37498959.5, "trend": 23.971998, "fair_value": 18.556326, "relative_strength": -22.071641, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.032945, "energy": 65.179497, "activity_lines": [ 19.158667, 19.994364, 21.258909, 22.231485 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.059999, "volume": 24300935, "typical_volume": 37020267.75, "trend": 23.606998, "fair_value": 18.588921, "relative_strength": -24.192062, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.035356, "energy": 67.649287, "activity_lines": [ 18.918667, 19.725231, 20.988671, 21.914581 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }