{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f057f622-c0b9-439a-99ba-3ac167e38500", "symbol": "NEXTMEDIA", "name": "Next Mediaworks Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.864, "architecture_energy": 30.586, "architecture_maturity": 42.248, "architecture_confidence": 89.31, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.5, "rotation_up": 23.45, "upward_expansion": 3.29, "deceleration": 51.62, "rotation_down": 40.01, "downward_expansion": 71.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.949333, 3.969455, 4.019048, 4.175978 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3.95, "trend_reference": 4.497, "distance_from_trend": -0.121637, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.461154, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.388654, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.206468, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.27256, "excess_performance": -0.228851, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.121637, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.139495, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.388654, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051026, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.242065, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00291, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.27256, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.737683, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17222, "relative_activity": 0.151881, "balance": 0.737683, "dry_up": 0.347628, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.095229, "annualized_volatility": 0.441424, "from_high_reference": -0.534198, "from_low_reference": 0.154971 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.497, "fair_value_reference": 6.461154, "structural_low": 3.42, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.001404, "positive_rate": 0.47619, "directional_follow_through": 0.52381, "median_excess_return": -0.026472, "regime_survival": 0.809524, "best_return": 0.2125, "worst_return": -0.266055, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.001948, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.029238, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.100318, "worst_return": -0.292517, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.093063, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.160769, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.009554, "worst_return": -0.244898, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.101751, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.051519, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.105346, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.203822, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.08169, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.023184, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.136086, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.236842, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.050481, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 5.0, "volume": 70735, "typical_volume": 71749.95, "trend": 5.126667, "fair_value": 5.597756, "relative_strength": -14.406635, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance 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"2026-07-17", "close": 3.86, "volume": 62054, "typical_volume": 127961.85, "trend": 4.699, "fair_value": 6.479231, "relative_strength": -27.057583, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.314629, "energy": 31.548451, "activity_lines": [ 3.975333, 3.981818, 4.06519, 4.304882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.98, "volume": 31755, "typical_volume": 126419.85, "trend": 4.625333, "fair_value": 6.472692, "relative_strength": -22.357352, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.302789, "energy": 30.998253, "activity_lines": [ 3.968667, 3.979818, 4.046619, 4.258495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.95, "volume": 46641, "typical_volume": 127595.35, "trend": 4.553667, "fair_value": 6.467564, "relative_strength": -24.246193, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.183, "energy": 30.400562, "activity_lines": [ 3.956, 3.972727, 4.030333, 4.214925 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.95, "volume": 17222, "typical_volume": 113391.4, "trend": 4.497, "fair_value": 6.461154, "relative_strength": -24.206468, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.864099, "energy": 30.586316, "activity_lines": [ 3.949333, 3.969455, 4.019048, 4.175978 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }