{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "f05915fe-9948-4777-885c-54f4b3208ba4",
    "symbol": "O87",
    "name": "SPDR Gold Shares",
    "exchange": "SES",
    "country": "SG",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^STI",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 77.957,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -51.468,
    "architecture_energy": 49.003,
    "architecture_maturity": 59.073,
    "architecture_confidence": 65.738,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 28.23,
        "rotation_up": 26.24,
        "upward_expansion": 19.85,
        "deceleration": 66.65,
        "rotation_down": 46.44,
        "downward_expansion": 69.85
      },
      "activity_lines": [
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        404.746215
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      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": -0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 395.420013,
    "trend_reference": 420.876,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.060483,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 288.933205,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.368552,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -16.295896,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.116182,
    "excess_performance": -0.271017,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.060483,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.008167,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.368552,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.227833,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.162959,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.217366,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.116182,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.517106,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
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      "relative_activity": 1.168574,
      "balance": 0.517106,
      "dry_up": 1.000811,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.037882,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.233799,
      "from_high_reference": -0.2307,
      "from_low_reference": 0.295185
    },
    "levels": {
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      "fair_value_reference": 288.933205,
      "structural_low": 364.220001,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
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    "outcomes": [
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        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 10,
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        "positive_rate": 0.6,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.4,
        "median_excess_return": -0.000342,
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        "worst_return": -0.054509,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 4,
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        "worst_return": -0.057978,
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        "horizon": "Extended",
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        "horizon": "Full cycle",
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
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      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "date": "2026-05-01",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "date": "2026-06-05",
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      },
      {
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "fair_value": 283.887948,
        "relative_strength": -17.431136,
        "stage": 3,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "volume": 42434,
        "typical_volume": 55756.45,
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        "fair_value": 285.06923,
        "relative_strength": -20.098973,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -79.455248,
        "energy": 90.538438,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
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        "volume": 69676,
        "typical_volume": 51998.2,
        "trend": 422.404665,
        "fair_value": 286.297756,
        "relative_strength": -19.791583,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -67.326802,
        "energy": 74.476659,
        "activity_lines": [
          373.007328,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 373.200012,
        "volume": 25088,
        "typical_volume": 49968.6,
        "trend": 421.388666,
        "fair_value": 287.539615,
        "relative_strength": -20.107135,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -65.095039,
        "energy": 63.755535,
        "activity_lines": [
          372.826001,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 395.420013,
        "volume": 56559,
        "typical_volume": 48400.0,
        "trend": 420.876,
        "fair_value": 288.933205,
        "relative_strength": -16.295896,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -51.467899,
        "energy": 49.003488,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}