{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f05d99a0-b3e4-4f62-8ef0-1b952e364ce9", "symbol": "CFF", "name": "Conifex Timber Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 0.896, "architecture_energy": 6.664, "architecture_maturity": 13.45, "architecture_confidence": 39.829, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 65.98, "rotation_up": 23.28, "upward_expansion": 26.84, "deceleration": 64.03, "rotation_down": 38.46, "downward_expansion": 24.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.129333, 0.132545, 0.129857, 0.129247 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.13, "trend_reference": 0.129667, "distance_from_trend": 0.002571, "trend_direction": "Stable", "fair_value": 0.395641, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.671419, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -31.509489, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.181818, "excess_performance": 0.061397, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.002571, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.671419, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.083939, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.315095, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.210189, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.181818, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.854789, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 70500, "relative_activity": 0.464656, "balance": 1.854789, "dry_up": 0.758115, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.118343, "annualized_volatility": 0.766893, "from_high_reference": -0.617647, "from_low_reference": 1.166667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.129667, "fair_value_reference": 0.395641, "structural_low": 0.1, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.032086, "positive_rate": 0.347826, "directional_follow_through": 0.347826, "median_excess_return": -0.06206, "regime_survival": 0.478261, "best_return": 0.127273, "worst_return": -0.290909, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.130816, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.129513, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.076923, "worst_return": -0.266667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.180036, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.234813, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.005291, "worst_return": -0.426667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.423763, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.573975, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": -0.061033, "worst_return": -0.636364, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-02-16", "end": "2024-03-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.146667, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.016129, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.179104, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.176471, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.232558, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.152174, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.090909, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.029412, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.121212, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.548387, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.076923, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.22, "volume": 9100, "typical_volume": 44410.0, "trend": 1.435, "fair_value": 1.63855, "relative_strength": -20.245681, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.691059, "energy": 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"stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.165249, "energy": 49.296565, "activity_lines": [ 0.136667, 0.130545, 0.128476, 0.127183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.14, "volume": 28400, "typical_volume": 230220.0, "trend": 0.123333, "fair_value": 0.42609, "relative_strength": -32.278614, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.791516, "energy": 52.682688, "activity_lines": [ 0.138667, 0.133091, 0.129619, 0.128366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.14, "volume": 117000, "typical_volume": 219485.0, "trend": 0.126, "fair_value": 0.418333, "relative_strength": -30.515083, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.155599, "energy": 53.541303, "activity_lines": [ 0.14, 0.135273, 0.130714, 0.129441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.13, "volume": 79000, "typical_volume": 161815.0, "trend": 0.128, "fair_value": 0.410513, "relative_strength": -33.731796, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.371662, "energy": 35.528353, "activity_lines": [ 0.136667, 0.135273, 0.130762, 0.129699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.12, "volume": 193600, "typical_volume": 154455.0, "trend": 0.129, "fair_value": 0.402628, "relative_strength": -36.646602, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.234631, "energy": 8.903251, "activity_lines": [ 0.130667, 0.133091, 0.129762, 0.129183 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.13, "volume": 70500, "typical_volume": 151725.0, "trend": 0.129667, "fair_value": 0.395641, "relative_strength": -31.509489, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 0.895613, "energy": 6.663937, "activity_lines": [ 0.129333, 0.132545, 0.129857, 0.129247 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }