{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f05f36f5-fb30-4f70-b180-a65a88fcd77c", "symbol": "LEG", "name": "LEG Immobilien SE", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.419, "architecture_energy": 65.623, "architecture_maturity": 43.745, "architecture_confidence": 87.603, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.37, "rotation_up": 14.4, "upward_expansion": 16.86, "deceleration": 35.46, "rotation_down": 67.54, "downward_expansion": 87.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 52.193334, 53.066364, 53.865095, 54.883935 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 52.400002, "trend_reference": 56.454149, "distance_from_trend": -0.071813, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 66.101011, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.207274, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.694569, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.108558, "excess_performance": -0.282804, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.071813, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037444, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.207274, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052837, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.286946, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025934, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.108558, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 2.988506, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043278, "annualized_volatility": 0.317788, "from_high_reference": -0.264857, "from_low_reference": 0.038337 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 56.454149, "fair_value_reference": 66.101011, "structural_low": 50.465303, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.020218, "positive_rate": 0.40625, "directional_follow_through": 0.59375, "median_excess_return": -0.030853, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.26961, "worst_return": -0.18828, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.054767, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.099411, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.236942, "worst_return": -0.232657, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.132477, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.173507, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.497729, "worst_return": -0.316479, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.033514, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.042908, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.073325, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.040317, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.073611, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-17", 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52.939284, "activity_lines": [ 53.983333, 54.239032, 55.320727, 56.450063 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 56.950001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 20.75, "trend": 57.504671, "fair_value": 66.212141, "relative_strength": -25.861595, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.922591, "energy": 23.912992, "activity_lines": [ 54.983333, 54.645094, 55.318609, 56.405946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 53.799999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 20.75, "trend": 57.367144, "fair_value": 66.212504, "relative_strength": -28.265677, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.678198, "energy": 22.609287, "activity_lines": [ 54.863333, 54.479754, 55.045575, 56.166934 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 52.75, "volume": 364, "typical_volume": 38.95, "trend": 57.186697, "fair_value": 66.183208, "relative_strength": -27.506345, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.691511, "energy": 25.944479, "activity_lines": [ 54.306666, 54.175193, 54.727036, 55.869054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 51.400002, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 33.45, "trend": 56.975507, "fair_value": 66.14868, "relative_strength": -29.574007, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.024696, "energy": 44.031971, "activity_lines": [ 53.276667, 53.677811, 54.351412, 55.495719 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 51.849998, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 30.45, "trend": 56.75714, "fair_value": 66.12582, "relative_strength": -28.151255, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.658703, "energy": 64.244715, "activity_lines": [ 52.51, 53.293636, 54.069407, 55.165041 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 52.400002, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 30.45, "trend": 56.454149, "fair_value": 66.101011, "relative_strength": -28.694569, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.41921, "energy": 65.622843, "activity_lines": [ 52.193334, 53.066364, 53.865095, 54.883935 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }