{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f061c33c-337a-4767-b4bd-c792fb4f72d1", "symbol": "BVB", "name": "Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co. Kommanditgesellschaft auf Aktien", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 67.437, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -37.0, "architecture_energy": 19.981, "architecture_maturity": 94.56, "architecture_confidence": 75.501, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.29, "rotation_up": 23.59, "upward_expansion": 13.19, "deceleration": 40.37, "rotation_down": 32.66, "downward_expansion": 60.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.054, 3.049545, 3.069548, 3.086387 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3.075, "trend_reference": 3.127, "distance_from_trend": -0.016629, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.410791, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.09845, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -23.491007, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.059633, "excess_performance": -0.23388, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.016629, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024291, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.09845, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031245, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.23491, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015872, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.059633, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.830986, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 2.830986, "dry_up": 0.386667, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024265, "annualized_volatility": 0.18238, "from_high_reference": -0.158173, "from_low_reference": 0.069565 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.127, "fair_value_reference": 3.410791, "structural_low": 2.875, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.003044, "positive_rate": 0.512821, "directional_follow_through": 0.487179, "median_excess_return": -0.027061, "regime_survival": 0.897436, "best_return": 0.162398, "worst_return": -0.19832, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.017728, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.064061, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.205651, "worst_return": -0.127893, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.068548, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.059966, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.149182, "worst_return": -0.213967, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.014423, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.154314, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.046109, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.028806, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.028966, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Extended", 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"trend": 3.143333, "fair_value": 3.425117, "relative_strength": -23.840148, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.030328, "energy": 31.563164, "activity_lines": [ 3.043333, 3.049273, 3.073929, 3.096667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.045, "volume": 354, "typical_volume": 412.5, "trend": 3.136, "fair_value": 3.418182, "relative_strength": -22.695568, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.805846, "energy": 28.210998, "activity_lines": [ 3.045, 3.045909, 3.07031, 3.090323 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.075, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 412.5, "trend": 3.127, "fair_value": 3.410791, "relative_strength": -23.491007, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.999946, "energy": 19.980725, "activity_lines": [ 3.054, 3.049545, 3.069548, 3.086387 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }