{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f06a800b-2c43-4cfa-9e2e-14667b128be3", "symbol": "TMFM", "name": "MOTLEY FOOL MID-CAP GROWTH ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 89.334, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 44.733, "architecture_energy": 39.821, "architecture_maturity": 23.309, "architecture_confidence": 44.798, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.82, "rotation_up": 56.39, "upward_expansion": 53.43, "deceleration": 29.34, "rotation_down": 25.08, "downward_expansion": 16.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.14102, 21.924605, 21.570792, 21.451278 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 23.0049, "trend_reference": 21.573217, "distance_from_trend": 0.066364, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 23.472351, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.019915, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.396767, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.040005, "excess_performance": -0.08562, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.066364, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029098, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.019915, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.078319, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.103968, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.119901, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.040005, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.073119, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 39225, "relative_activity": 0.748337, "balance": 1.073119, "dry_up": 0.704787, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042664, "annualized_volatility": 0.217987, "from_high_reference": -0.123903, "from_low_reference": 0.170137 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.573217, "fair_value_reference": 23.472351, "structural_low": 19.66, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.014077, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.006621, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.054303, "worst_return": -0.055785, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.005478, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.051778, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.107404, "worst_return": -0.088675, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.011021, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.103126, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.218683, "worst_return": -0.136216, 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"fair_value": 23.443269, "relative_strength": -13.764738, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 14.392165, "energy": 28.043825, "activity_lines": [ 21.807907, 21.582491, 21.288851, 21.372738 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.15, "volume": 40159, "typical_volume": 54293.9, "trend": 21.655403, "fair_value": 23.445363, "relative_strength": -14.940615, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.693071, "energy": 17.276249, "activity_lines": [ 21.628933, 21.546256, 21.294163, 21.333903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.0852, "volume": 32496, "typical_volume": 53213.45, "trend": 21.615387, "fair_value": 23.456883, "relative_strength": -11.521668, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.521201, "energy": 18.535915, "activity_lines": [ 21.747693, 21.662967, 21.39198, 21.361632 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.0049, "volume": 39225, "typical_volume": 52416.2, "trend": 21.573217, "fair_value": 23.472351, "relative_strength": -10.396767, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 44.733247, "energy": 39.821304, "activity_lines": [ 22.14102, 21.924605, 21.570792, 21.451278 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }