{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f07192d3-5f36-463e-808b-050b0b091c54", "symbol": "IBHF", "name": "ISHARES IBONDS 2026 TERM HIGH YIELD AND INCOME ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 87.861, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.006, "architecture_energy": 42.906, "architecture_maturity": 8.219, "architecture_confidence": 91.068, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.15, "rotation_up": 18.69, "upward_expansion": 7.55, "deceleration": 44.08, "rotation_down": 50.54, "downward_expansion": 78.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.473907, 22.486544, 22.517363, 22.540026 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 22.5, "trend_reference": 22.56189, "distance_from_trend": -0.002743, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.071544, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.067791, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.890289, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.005016, "excess_performance": -0.130641, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.002743, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000784, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.067791, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020386, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.108903, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007462, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.005016, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.114162, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1265557, "relative_activity": 0.859618, "balance": 1.114162, "dry_up": 0.746353, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.003735, "annualized_volatility": 0.01581, "from_high_reference": -0.010137, "from_low_reference": 0.023719 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.56189, "fair_value_reference": 21.071544, "structural_low": 22.4175, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.006674, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.037512, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.051678, "worst_return": -0.021916, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.033311, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.048084, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.050685, "worst_return": 0.015937, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.008253, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.01678, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.008253, "worst_return": 0.008253, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"2026-07-24", "close": 22.471618, "volume": 1390674, "typical_volume": 1498073.85, "trend": 22.564743, "fair_value": 21.021879, "relative_strength": -7.490593, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.764364, "energy": 61.12602, "activity_lines": [ 22.468778, 22.496214, 22.531531, 22.550752 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.461657, "volume": 755792, "typical_volume": 1462264.6, "trend": 22.563165, "fair_value": 21.046496, "relative_strength": -8.231269, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.740252, "energy": 62.727569, "activity_lines": [ 22.460927, 22.486733, 22.522465, 22.544102 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.5, "volume": 1265557, "typical_volume": 1472232.25, "trend": 22.56189, "fair_value": 21.071544, "relative_strength": -10.890289, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.005551, "energy": 42.905955, "activity_lines": [ 22.473907, 22.486544, 22.517363, 22.540026 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }