{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f0780b43-983a-4438-a112-37f1ae8fabf9", "symbol": "SC06", "name": "Invesco STOXX Europe 600 Optimised Media UCITS ETF", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 76.131, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 76.529, "architecture_energy": 52.632, "architecture_maturity": 24.264, "architecture_confidence": 74.167, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.85, "rotation_up": 58.17, "upward_expansion": 80.54, "deceleration": 62.9, "rotation_down": 21.94, "downward_expansion": 7.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 166.966666, 165.743273, 162.49381, 159.188431 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 171.399994, "trend_reference": 156.682667, "distance_from_trend": 0.093931, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 175.099535, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.021128, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.605657, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.122904, "excess_performance": 0.058264, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.093931, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008743, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.021128, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.073195, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.026057, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053099, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.122904, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.098638, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 99, "relative_activity": 0.165704, "balance": 2.098638, "dry_up": 0.731024, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034369, "annualized_volatility": 0.213456, "from_high_reference": -0.037403, "from_low_reference": 0.26644 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 156.682667, "fair_value_reference": 175.099535, "structural_low": 135.339996, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": 0.012637, "positive_rate": 0.588235, "directional_follow_through": 0.588235, "median_excess_return": 0.003522, "regime_survival": 0.852941, "best_return": 0.071141, "worst_return": -0.127666, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.054338, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": 0.001529, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.168482, "worst_return": -0.084964, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.025804, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.039862, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.215036, 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"Established", "return": -0.047297, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.079564, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.159573, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.034307, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.022071, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.062931, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": 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165.240005, "volume": 285, "typical_volume": 594.6, "trend": 156.887334, "fair_value": 174.84415, "relative_strength": -2.051732, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.863503, "energy": 75.690093, "activity_lines": [ 166.006671, 164.333457, 160.463907, 157.865464 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 162.699997, "volume": 195, "typical_volume": 595.4, "trend": 156.706667, "fair_value": 174.940433, "relative_strength": -5.244962, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.438382, "energy": 46.386137, "activity_lines": [ 165.105335, 164.264002, 161.09943, 158.240474 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 171.399994, "volume": 99, "typical_volume": 597.45, "trend": 156.682667, "fair_value": 175.099535, "relative_strength": -2.605657, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.528971, "energy": 52.631999, "activity_lines": [ 166.966666, 165.743273, 162.49381, 159.188431 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }