{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f08169e9-2d0b-4e08-9848-a362085cdd09", "symbol": "CSEMAS", "name": "iShares VII PLC - iShares MSCI EM Asia ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 78.645, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 24.444, "architecture_energy": 25.22, "architecture_maturity": 65.72, "architecture_confidence": 82.438, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.21, "rotation_up": 17.97, "upward_expansion": 52.46, "deceleration": 93.99, "rotation_down": 36.61, "downward_expansion": 18.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 251.057335, 256.227456, 255.38643, 248.262581 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 253.0, "trend_reference": 238.903666, "distance_from_trend": 0.059004, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 180.510897, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.401577, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.401768, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.159593, "excess_performance": -0.011299, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.059004, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.086476, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.401577, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.096624, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.014018, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.139694, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.159593, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.188883, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 36491, "relative_activity": 1.336539, "balance": 1.188883, "dry_up": 1.051512, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.04958, "annualized_volatility": 0.249317, "from_high_reference": -0.091399, "from_low_reference": 0.395477 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 238.903666, "fair_value_reference": 180.510897, "structural_low": 203.710007, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.000675, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.01669, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.147743, "worst_return": -0.041629, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.064667, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.037033, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.281903, "worst_return": -0.01598, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.070169, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.051815, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.390709, "worst_return": -0.017068, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.146994, "energy": 24.295577, "activity_lines": [ 255.385334, 259.982728, 254.502048, 246.50443 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 248.100006, "volume": 24988, "typical_volume": 27601.35, "trend": 237.588333, "fair_value": 179.795384, "relative_strength": -0.303482, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.140667, "energy": 25.156037, "activity_lines": [ 251.801336, 257.59982, 254.78362, 247.26828 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 253.0, "volume": 36491, "typical_volume": 27302.6, "trend": 238.903666, "fair_value": 180.510897, "relative_strength": -1.401768, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.4435, "energy": 25.220437, "activity_lines": [ 251.057335, 256.227456, 255.38643, 248.262581 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }