{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f0861cf7-5865-45d5-8be4-302676409e56", "symbol": "XFAB", "name": "X-FAB Silicon Foundries SE", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 4.588, "architecture_energy": 18.086, "architecture_maturity": 56.545, "architecture_confidence": 83.638, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.76, "rotation_up": 15.69, "upward_expansion": 41.5, "deceleration": 86.39, "rotation_down": 42.59, "downward_expansion": 35.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.892333, 7.436273, 7.773529, 7.243172 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 7.03, "trend_reference": 6.523367, "distance_from_trend": 0.077664, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.49734, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.081981, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.854452, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.638695, "excess_performance": 0.585383, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.077664, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.183943, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.081981, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055362, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.048545, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.116215, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.638695, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.281948, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1932455, "relative_activity": 0.901575, "balance": 1.281948, "dry_up": 0.974985, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.228088, "annualized_volatility": 0.693812, "from_high_reference": -0.557305, "from_low_reference": 0.717147 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.523367, "fair_value_reference": 6.49734, "structural_low": 4.16, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.020642, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.026061, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.195026, "worst_return": -0.274255, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.01178, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.001144, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.231693, "worst_return": -0.243982, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.270368, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.134043, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.204188, "worst_return": -0.307985, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 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"stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.523279, "energy": 25.77292, "activity_lines": [ 7.692, 8.423182, 7.88859, 7.175512 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.955, "volume": 1958960, "typical_volume": 2030836.2, "trend": 6.435867, "fair_value": 6.551538, "relative_strength": 7.203539, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.356113, "energy": 21.727454, "activity_lines": [ 7.348667, 8.104364, 7.877448, 7.212994 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.345, "volume": 2317183, "typical_volume": 2107027.95, "trend": 6.471367, "fair_value": 6.52125, "relative_strength": -3.350595, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -3.110545, "energy": 17.917989, "activity_lines": [ 6.951333, 7.694, 7.796748, 7.207131 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.03, "volume": 1932455, "typical_volume": 2143420.9, "trend": 6.523367, "fair_value": 6.49734, "relative_strength": 4.854452, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.588377, "energy": 18.085687, "activity_lines": [ 6.892333, 7.436273, 7.773529, 7.243172 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }