{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f08deb5d-3b08-4968-9e88-f089c003e88a", "symbol": "BPT", "name": "Beach Energy Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -70.29, "architecture_energy": 61.827, "architecture_maturity": 70.137, "architecture_confidence": 80.809, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.73, "rotation_up": 27.92, "upward_expansion": 16.01, "deceleration": 59.91, "rotation_down": 51.38, "downward_expansion": 78.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.887, 0.894364, 0.97369, 1.029032 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.865, "trend_reference": 1.084887, "distance_from_trend": -0.202682, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.26133, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.314216, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.713743, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.237546, "excess_performance": -0.301252, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.202682, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069392, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.314216, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.148659, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.267137, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.169557, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.237546, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.431382, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 58887700, "relative_activity": 1.425178, "balance": 2.431382, "dry_up": 1.281669, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.077812, "annualized_volatility": 0.369165, "from_high_reference": -0.35206, "from_low_reference": 0.048485 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.084887, "fair_value_reference": 1.26133, "structural_low": 0.825, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.015803, "positive_rate": 0.458333, "directional_follow_through": 0.541667, "median_excess_return": 0.005164, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.302752, "worst_return": -0.229358, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.007947, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.153069, "worst_return": -0.169381, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.049542, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.056385, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.059886, "worst_return": -0.260457, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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46301969.35, "trend": 1.100693, "fair_value": 1.268849, "relative_strength": -19.816965, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.320423, "energy": 85.608821, "activity_lines": [ 0.878667, 0.919818, 1.009929, 1.056005 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.91, "volume": 51705790, "typical_volume": 42880610.6, "trend": 1.092384, "fair_value": 1.265277, "relative_strength": -20.941047, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.33291, "energy": 62.190432, "activity_lines": [ 0.892333, 0.909182, 0.993357, 1.043702 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.865, "volume": 58887700, "typical_volume": 41319526.25, "trend": 1.084887, "fair_value": 1.26133, "relative_strength": -26.713743, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.290447, "energy": 61.826747, "activity_lines": [ 0.887, 0.894364, 0.97369, 1.029032 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }