{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f0924008-a655-499b-aec5-01cea72928b9", "symbol": "IVAI", "name": "Invesco Markets II plc - Invesco Artificial Intelligence Enablers UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 71.214, "architecture_energy": 39.646, "architecture_maturity": 76.557, "architecture_confidence": 93.812, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.71, "rotation_up": 36.86, "upward_expansion": 65.67, "deceleration": 94.25, "rotation_down": 29.33, "downward_expansion": 15.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.870133, 8.856782, 8.734819, 8.337112 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 9.346, "trend_reference": 7.852433, "distance_from_trend": 0.190204, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.602571, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.415509, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 8.94789, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.367974, "excess_performance": 0.197083, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.190204, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.088484, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.415509, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040588, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.089479, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057229, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.367974, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.747581, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 158227, "relative_activity": 2.161122, "balance": 1.747581, "dry_up": 1.817283, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.051779, "annualized_volatility": 0.331011, "from_high_reference": -0.029088, "from_low_reference": 0.642819 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.852433, "fair_value_reference": 6.602571, "structural_low": 6.379, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.059822, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.124669, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-11-08", "close": 5.419, "volume": 7835, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-11-15", "close": 5.261, "volume": 29485, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": 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}, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.615, "volume": 38635, "typical_volume": 67851.15, "trend": 7.7274, "fair_value": 6.548772, "relative_strength": 4.850443, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.778533, "energy": 27.688119, "activity_lines": [ 8.651867, 8.830436, 8.570395, 8.17352 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.701, "volume": 126232, "typical_volume": 67885.0, "trend": 7.783933, "fair_value": 6.572423, "relative_strength": 4.857515, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.79886, "energy": 24.080643, "activity_lines": [ 8.6546, 8.781564, 8.62649, 8.236333 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.346, "volume": 158227, "typical_volume": 73215.2, "trend": 7.852433, "fair_value": 6.602571, "relative_strength": 8.94789, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.213822, "energy": 39.646194, "activity_lines": [ 8.870133, 8.856782, 8.734819, 8.337112 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }