{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f092a89b-5f95-4990-8728-22b5ba4b6f61", "symbol": "FME", "name": "Future Metals NL", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.878, "architecture_energy": 62.021, "architecture_maturity": 58.0, "architecture_confidence": 90.304, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.22, "rotation_up": 17.91, "upward_expansion": 11.27, "deceleration": 45.67, "rotation_down": 64.22, "downward_expansion": 84.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.013533, 0.014273, 0.015938, 0.01744 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.015, "trend_reference": 0.02045, "distance_from_trend": -0.266504, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.023305, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.356349, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -37.346594, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.423077, "excess_performance": -0.486783, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.266504, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.171506, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.356349, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.1458, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.373466, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.246295, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.423077, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.603029, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10425538, "relative_activity": 1.880242, "balance": 0.603029, "dry_up": 0.857175, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.15641, "annualized_volatility": 0.73759, "from_high_reference": -0.651163, "from_low_reference": 0.25 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.02045, "fair_value_reference": 0.023305, "structural_low": 0.012, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": -0.066667, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.070517, "regime_survival": 0.878788, "best_return": 0.454545, "worst_return": -0.313429, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.093407, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.117559, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.333333, "worst_return": -0.469996, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.315789, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.37053, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.307692, "worst_return": -0.669998, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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0.019065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.012, "volume": 3493170, "typical_volume": 5945737.7, "trend": 0.02165, "fair_value": 0.023603, "relative_strength": -47.303241, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.807506, "energy": 77.227362, "activity_lines": [ 0.013667, 0.014818, 0.0166, 0.018392 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.013, "volume": 2918846, "typical_volume": 5540330.1, "trend": 0.021117, "fair_value": 0.023457, "relative_strength": -44.094943, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.325677, "energy": 83.917695, "activity_lines": [ 0.0132, 0.014309, 0.016152, 0.017834 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.015, "volume": 10425538, "typical_volume": 5544786.55, "trend": 0.02045, "fair_value": 0.023305, "relative_strength": -37.346594, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.877599, "energy": 62.021075, "activity_lines": [ 0.013533, 0.014273, 0.015938, 0.01744 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }