{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f09306b9-61c8-4dee-99c0-e54c55d11fae", "symbol": "NMFC", "name": "New Mountain Finance Corporation", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 85.37, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -27.333, "architecture_energy": 23.142, "architecture_maturity": 36.757, "architecture_confidence": 67.388, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.02, "rotation_up": 25.53, "upward_expansion": 16.72, "deceleration": 61.61, "rotation_down": 40.04, "downward_expansion": 66.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.208, 7.176353, 7.383512, 7.461791 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 7.75, "trend_reference": 7.587505, "distance_from_trend": 0.021416, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.841022, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.123405, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.305585, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.046652, "excess_performance": -0.140801, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.021416, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055856, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.123405, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020004, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.163056, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.056532, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.046652, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.69754, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3967276, "relative_activity": 1.183463, "balance": 0.69754, "dry_up": 0.871706, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05166, "annualized_volatility": 0.306727, "from_high_reference": -0.168455, "from_low_reference": 0.15156 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.587505, "fair_value_reference": 8.841022, "structural_low": 6.73, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.024823, "positive_rate": 0.705882, "directional_follow_through": 0.235294, "median_excess_return": -0.002956, "regime_survival": 0.705882, "best_return": 0.126623, "worst_return": -0.087719, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.028364, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.042611, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.080996, "worst_return": -0.096507, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.032246, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.163023, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.107779, "worst_return": -0.080438, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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6.84, "volume": 2506038, "typical_volume": 3826574.7, "trend": 7.671591, "fair_value": 8.861557, "relative_strength": -23.244278, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.045285, "energy": 66.821389, "activity_lines": [ 7.011333, 7.156556, 7.422965, 7.50353 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.89, "volume": 2654598, "typical_volume": 3547670.15, "trend": 7.615369, "fair_value": 8.847915, "relative_strength": -22.370221, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.841757, "energy": 63.293361, "activity_lines": [ 6.962, 7.081041, 7.361194, 7.453105 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.75, "volume": 3967276, "typical_volume": 3352259.65, "trend": 7.587505, "fair_value": 8.841022, "relative_strength": -16.305585, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.333219, "energy": 23.142411, "activity_lines": [ 7.208, 7.176353, 7.383512, 7.461791 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }