{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f094011c-87e4-4335-bc79-e0933b9ea74c", "symbol": "RDWR", "name": "Radware Ltd", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 91.462, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 31.425, "architecture_energy": 16.056, "architecture_maturity": 66.69, "architecture_confidence": 77.531, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.46, "rotation_up": 30.32, "upward_expansion": 57.81, "deceleration": 84.79, "rotation_down": 29.52, "downward_expansion": 19.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.454667, 28.860182, 28.56219, 27.850151 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 28.3, "trend_reference": 26.884833, "distance_from_trend": 0.052638, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.309199, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.268535, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.638535, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.130643, "excess_performance": -0.05681, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.052638, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.070093, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.268535, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01093, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.046385, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057225, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.130643, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.924645, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1083660, "relative_activity": 0.92272, "balance": 0.924645, "dry_up": 1.263325, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.107412, "annualized_volatility": 0.491333, "from_high_reference": -0.136958, "from_low_reference": 0.305351 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.884833, "fair_value_reference": 22.309199, "structural_low": 22.022, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.010765, "positive_rate": 0.45, "directional_follow_through": 0.45, "median_excess_return": -0.011903, "regime_survival": 0.65, "best_return": 0.135641, "worst_return": -0.224784, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.048891, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.012128, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.136005, "worst_return": -0.147932, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.038479, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.060809, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.246614, "worst_return": -0.375798, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.13579, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.205256, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.105857, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.060778, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.051073, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.074978, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.036439, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.170845, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.081108, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.02984, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 17.05, "volume": 545000, "typical_volume": 743394.55, "trend": 19.992333, "fair_value": 26.050449, "relative_strength": -28.828972, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": 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31.45, "volume": 902985, "typical_volume": 1194335.0, "trend": 26.283167, "fair_value": 22.032917, "relative_strength": 4.263995, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.419858, "energy": 45.602813, "activity_lines": [ 29.778, 29.256727, 28.159, 27.327484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 30.29, "volume": 1705482, "typical_volume": 1220470.4, "trend": 26.494167, "fair_value": 22.107981, "relative_strength": 5.195415, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.196882, "energy": 58.494242, "activity_lines": [ 30.149333, 29.507091, 28.461595, 27.585989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 29.51, "volume": 1141866, "typical_volume": 1211157.45, "trend": 26.6655, "fair_value": 22.178173, "relative_strength": 4.508013, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.303617, "energy": 52.125559, "activity_lines": [ 30.123333, 29.564545, 28.655905, 27.780559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.19, "volume": 2003686, "typical_volume": 1252547.75, "trend": 26.745833, "fair_value": 22.236763, "relative_strength": -7.418544, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.809557, "energy": 17.575696, "activity_lines": [ 28.83, 28.990182, 28.511214, 27.749882 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.3, "volume": 1083660, "typical_volume": 1174419.7, "trend": 26.884833, "fair_value": 22.309199, "relative_strength": -4.638535, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.424744, "energy": 16.055548, "activity_lines": [ 28.454667, 28.860182, 28.56219, 27.850151 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }