{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f0946aa2-6e46-4a41-9ca5-cbf9671ae64f", "symbol": "HNDL", "name": "STRATEGY SHARES NASDAQ 7 HANDL(TM) INDEX ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 45.027, "architecture_energy": 23.816, "architecture_maturity": 36.398, "architecture_confidence": 76.544, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.71, "rotation_up": 35.35, "upward_expansion": 59.12, "deceleration": 84.28, "rotation_down": 25.75, "downward_expansion": 18.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.605996, 22.621205, 22.583094, 22.424396 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 22.72, "trend_reference": 22.213882, "distance_from_trend": 0.022784, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.520992, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.163875, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.663127, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.043831, "excess_performance": -0.143622, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.022784, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02048, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.163875, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025433, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.086631, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022513, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.043831, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.230054, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 384349, "relative_activity": 1.304661, "balance": 1.230054, "dry_up": 0.966813, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.015166, "annualized_volatility": 0.069488, "from_high_reference": -0.00786, "from_low_reference": 0.120455 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.213882, "fair_value_reference": 19.520992, "structural_low": 21.156978, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.026218, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.035311, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.054383, "worst_return": -0.004686, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.050466, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.022688, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.071196, "worst_return": -0.006147, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.022171, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.008636, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.111149, "worst_return": -0.027723, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.016816, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.023986, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.076514, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.067679, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.02423, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"direction": 59.292815, "energy": 41.377233, "activity_lines": [ 22.676788, 22.65523, 22.475276, 22.300504 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 22.6375, "volume": 279087, "typical_volume": 302476.15, "trend": 22.094561, "fair_value": 19.404794, "relative_strength": -5.973717, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.054503, "energy": 38.139053, "activity_lines": [ 22.669763, 22.654975, 22.51029, 22.33866 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.54, "volume": 266758, "typical_volume": 297481.1, "trend": 22.133352, "fair_value": 19.441828, "relative_strength": -4.693147, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.997963, "energy": 29.328932, "activity_lines": [ 22.628165, 22.636302, 22.534287, 22.367398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.4688, "volume": 209086, "typical_volume": 290163.25, "trend": 22.171987, "fair_value": 19.480599, "relative_strength": -5.29857, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.674201, "energy": 22.70641, "activity_lines": [ 22.567545, 22.60339, 22.548676, 22.38904 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.72, "volume": 384349, "typical_volume": 294596.9, "trend": 22.213882, "fair_value": 19.520992, "relative_strength": -8.663127, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.026847, "energy": 23.81649, "activity_lines": [ 22.605996, 22.621205, 22.583094, 22.424396 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }