{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f09e79a5-2835-4760-877d-20716173a523", "symbol": "PLY", "name": "PlaySide Studios Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.315, "architecture_energy": 85.236, "architecture_maturity": 60.074, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.67, "rotation_up": 29.4, "upward_expansion": 21.55, "deceleration": 37.19, "rotation_down": 55.52, "downward_expansion": 94.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.109667, 0.112364, 0.15381, 0.185258 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.11, "trend_reference": 0.222667, "distance_from_trend": -0.505988, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.412532, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.733354, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -52.96318, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.592593, "excess_performance": -0.656298, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.505988, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.146871, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.733354, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.353724, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.529632, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.704931, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.592593, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.085941, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2752681, "relative_activity": 1.116962, "balance": 0.085941, "dry_up": 0.668559, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.197552, "annualized_volatility": 1.068265, "from_high_reference": -0.717949, "from_low_reference": 0.047619 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.222667, "fair_value_reference": 0.412532, "structural_low": 0.105, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.020525, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.590909, "median_excess_return": -0.028357, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.25, "worst_return": -0.463415, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.195438, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.203235, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.432432, "worst_return": -0.521277, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.03254, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.030037, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.277108, "worst_return": -0.656489, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"relative_strength": -51.756318, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.00315, "energy": 86.145143, "activity_lines": [ 0.114667, 0.130545, 0.182119, 0.209409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.105, "volume": 430149, "typical_volume": 2510962.55, "trend": 0.233167, "fair_value": 0.417917, "relative_strength": -53.316536, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.15061, "energy": 87.751993, "activity_lines": [ 0.111, 0.121273, 0.171548, 0.200817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.11, "volume": 386212, "typical_volume": 2429458.85, "trend": 0.228, "fair_value": 0.415224, "relative_strength": -51.837078, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.811493, "energy": 84.746697, "activity_lines": [ 0.110333, 0.115636, 0.162357, 0.192871 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.11, "volume": 2752681, "typical_volume": 2464435.35, "trend": 0.222667, "fair_value": 0.412532, "relative_strength": -52.96318, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.314803, "energy": 85.236018, "activity_lines": [ 0.109667, 0.112364, 0.15381, 0.185258 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }