{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f09fc772-65db-4b40-951d-99ceb2e526e6", "symbol": "603867", "name": "Zhejiang Xinhua Chemical Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 65.627, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -37.248, "architecture_energy": 66.788, "architecture_maturity": 13.334, "architecture_confidence": 66.747, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.18, "rotation_up": 16.07, "upward_expansion": 22.97, "deceleration": 43.27, "rotation_down": 71.4, "downward_expansion": 62.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.897333, 30.843925, 33.304354, 33.413764 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 29.059999, "trend_reference": 32.89842, "distance_from_trend": -0.116675, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.433141, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.059303, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.212414, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.008678, "excess_performance": 0.051881, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.116675, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060058, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.059303, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.255003, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.062124, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.210205, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.008678, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.250104, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 26714105, "relative_activity": 0.867523, "balance": 1.250104, "dry_up": 0.994646, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.136897, "annualized_volatility": 0.613786, "from_high_reference": -0.332571, "from_low_reference": 0.24188 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.89842, "fair_value_reference": 27.433141, "structural_low": 23.99, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.119089, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.110566, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.159835, "worst_return": 0.013423, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.256552, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.2245, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.260362, "worst_return": 0.173374, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.224606, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.279916, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.555332, "worst_return": -0.036307, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 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"green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.158798, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.176413, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.156942, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.08504, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.146208, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.082601, "active": 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32491292, "typical_volume": 32146396.5, "trend": 32.713753, "fair_value": 27.534016, "relative_strength": -12.549647, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.046143, "energy": 45.504493, "activity_lines": [ 29.822, 33.255233, 34.427522, 34.01055 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.18, "volume": 32876976, "typical_volume": 31509260.9, "trend": 32.77642, "fair_value": 27.475048, "relative_strength": -9.806309, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.659164, "energy": 60.810887, "activity_lines": [ 28.164, 31.746411, 33.759843, 33.653533 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.059999, "volume": 26714105, "typical_volume": 30793533.6, "trend": 32.89842, "fair_value": 27.433141, "relative_strength": -6.212414, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.247928, "energy": 66.787771, "activity_lines": [ 27.897333, 30.843925, 33.304354, 33.413764 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }