{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f0a94aad-7bd8-4c0d-80f2-a7a1f2320507", "symbol": "REL", "name": "RELX PLC", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 55.86, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 16.676, "architecture_energy": 18.238, "architecture_maturity": 19.301, "architecture_confidence": 44.72, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.78, "rotation_up": 53.96, "upward_expansion": 34.17, "deceleration": 41.53, "rotation_down": 18.4, "downward_expansion": 20.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 2565.29238, 2498.713885, 2494.98044, 2499.836828 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 2627.0, "trend_reference": 2522.561991, "distance_from_trend": 0.041402, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3283.650091, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.199976, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -15.526218, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.224933, "excess_performance": 0.173697, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.041402, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072711, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.199976, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.052607, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.155262, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.132397, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.224933, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.02281, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 32304185, "relative_activity": 1.466347, "balance": 3.02281, "dry_up": 1.052658, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.087307, "annualized_volatility": 0.322313, "from_high_reference": -0.276973, "from_low_reference": 0.323028 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2522.561991, "fair_value_reference": 3283.650091, "structural_low": 1985.5963, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.013, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.002445, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.059969, "worst_return": -0.089613, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.073909, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.057799, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.145572, "worst_return": -0.113941, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.033434, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.013272, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.26945, "worst_return": 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"energy": 50.610171, "activity_lines": [ 2372.740107, 2415.458838, 2472.249391, 2500.805238 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2476.7858, "volume": 14980146, "typical_volume": 25898605.6, "trend": 2569.967238, "fair_value": 3283.666817, "relative_strength": -20.959261, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.721281, "energy": 30.680171, "activity_lines": [ 2401.906913, 2423.193949, 2469.45417, 2493.566313 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2548.2315, "volume": 17957141, "typical_volume": 23372058.4, "trend": 2554.093395, "fair_value": 3283.133341, "relative_strength": -18.680359, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.278181, "energy": 13.677651, "activity_lines": [ 2455.903233, 2443.613991, 2473.971596, 2492.164008 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2586.9314, "volume": 27520410, "typical_volume": 22358399.85, "trend": 2540.909289, "fair_value": 3283.263291, "relative_strength": -17.409484, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.893581, "energy": 12.304135, "activity_lines": [ 2511.384087, 2468.793442, 2482.609422, 2494.282589 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2627.0, "volume": 32304185, "typical_volume": 22030385.65, "trend": 2522.561991, "fair_value": 3283.650091, "relative_strength": -15.526218, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 16.675703, "energy": 18.238315, "activity_lines": [ 2565.29238, 2498.713885, 2494.98044, 2499.836828 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }