{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "f0af70e4-2379-492f-8ca3-d9d715bacfb9",
    "symbol": "PSEP",
    "name": "Innovator U.S. Equity Power Buffer ETF - September",
    "exchange": "CBOE",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 48.539,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 86.304,
    "architecture_energy": 84.557,
    "architecture_maturity": 45.219,
    "architecture_confidence": 81.156,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 1.56,
        "rotation_up": 68.51,
        "upward_expansion": 95.53,
        "deceleration": 43.02,
        "rotation_down": 26.83,
        "downward_expansion": 17.53
      },
      "activity_lines": [
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        45.906881,
        45.423524
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      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 1.0
    },
    "latest_close": 46.65,
    "trend_reference": 44.865203,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.039781,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 39.494413,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.18118,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -5.662392,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.05807,
    "excess_performance": -0.067555,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.039781,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.020137,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.18118,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.00334,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.056624,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.001612,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.05807,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 3.717652,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 477527,
      "relative_activity": 3.755463,
      "balance": 3.717652,
      "dry_up": 1.446263,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.00663,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.057046,
      "from_high_reference": -0.000964,
      "from_low_reference": 0.117365
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 44.865203,
      "fair_value_reference": 39.494413,
      "structural_low": 42.31,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
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        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 46,
        "median_return": 0.009242,
        "positive_rate": 0.608696,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.608696,
        "median_excess_return": -0.007758,
        "regime_survival": 0.847826,
        "best_return": 0.035235,
        "worst_return": -0.029128,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 16,
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        "regime_survival": 0.6875,
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        "worst_return": -0.01636,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 9,
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        "median_excess_return": -0.035323,
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        "worst_return": -0.054377,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
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        "worst_return": -0.031145,
        "sufficient": false
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      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      {
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
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        "typical_volume": 220771.8,
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        "fair_value": 38.175742,
        "relative_strength": -3.742461,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
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        "activity_lines": [
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        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "typical_volume": 218874.7,
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      },
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "energy": 87.784679,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "relative_strength": -4.351548,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "typical_volume": 211814.4,
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        "fair_value": 38.811304,
        "relative_strength": -4.410429,
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        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "fair_value": 38.983516,
        "relative_strength": -2.754755,
        "stage": 3,
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        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 64.4516,
        "energy": 66.625269,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "typical_volume": 174442.45,
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        "fair_value": 39.07108,
        "relative_strength": -3.955707,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "typical_volume": 141808.8,
        "trend": 44.52503,
        "fair_value": 39.155888,
        "relative_strength": -4.6838,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 89.740327,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "volume": 49789,
        "typical_volume": 141810.75,
        "trend": 44.61103,
        "fair_value": 39.238644,
        "relative_strength": -3.311421,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 71.939605,
        "energy": 87.530139,
        "activity_lines": [
          46.104333,
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          45.52376,
          45.089143
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 46.18,
        "volume": 69341,
        "typical_volume": 105537.3,
        "trend": 44.68803,
        "fair_value": 39.319798,
        "relative_strength": -2.595142,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 69.927042,
        "energy": 86.361937,
        "activity_lines": [
          46.151333,
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          45.64199,
          45.190366
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 46.43,
        "volume": 138943,
        "typical_volume": 107149.8,
        "trend": 44.77803,
        "fair_value": 39.406208,
        "relative_strength": -2.986387,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 79.717464,
        "energy": 87.823667,
        "activity_lines": [
          46.266,
          46.118255,
          45.771507,
          45.302752
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 46.65,
        "volume": 477527,
        "typical_volume": 127155.3,
        "trend": 44.865203,
        "fair_value": 39.494413,
        "relative_strength": -5.662392,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 86.304355,
        "energy": 84.556743,
        "activity_lines": [
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          45.423524
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}