{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f0b157ce-1504-49a4-b984-e8537e3d9eff", "symbol": "XZDW", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI Wld HighDiv ESG", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 87.541, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 83.384, "architecture_energy": 66.991, "architecture_maturity": 91.327, "architecture_confidence": 51.173, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.22, "rotation_up": 49.89, "upward_expansion": 80.67, "deceleration": 74.32, "rotation_down": 29.7, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 39.177001, 39.10991, 38.577018, 37.840038 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 39.84, "trend_reference": 36.919955, "distance_from_trend": 0.079091, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 32.784518, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.215208, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.461542, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.125058, "excess_performance": -0.045834, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.079091, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053443, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.215208, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05602, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.024615, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01002, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.125058, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.408444, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 246, "relative_activity": 0.278833, "balance": 0.408444, "dry_up": 2.699915, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.014241, "annualized_volatility": 0.106704, "from_high_reference": -0.010063, "from_low_reference": 0.284328 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 36.919955, "fair_value_reference": 32.784518, "structural_low": 33.919446, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.017908, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.010404, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.069094, "worst_return": -0.014237, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.080219, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.005845, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.088559, "worst_return": 0.071879, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.166804, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.012734, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.166804, "worst_return": 0.166804, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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-2.461542, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.383821, "energy": 66.991222, "activity_lines": [ 39.177001, 39.10991, 38.577018, 37.840038 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }