{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f0c07365-78b8-455b-a46e-87c6ecea5e1f", "symbol": "SOBHA", "name": "Sobha Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -15.323, "architecture_energy": 14.682, "architecture_maturity": 21.17, "architecture_confidence": 75.129, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.08, "rotation_up": 24.09, "upward_expansion": 24.77, "deceleration": 62.93, "rotation_down": 51.34, "downward_expansion": 33.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 1380.4, 1399.37124, 1394.219992, 1384.128556 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 1339.0, "trend_reference": 1389.154936, "distance_from_trend": -0.036105, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1418.961209, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.056352, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.59387, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.11588, "excess_performance": -0.072171, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.036105, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031547, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.056352, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.113316, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.065939, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065106, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.11588, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.486992, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 414108, "relative_activity": 0.507748, "balance": 0.486992, "dry_up": 1.624109, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.060628, "annualized_volatility": 0.319982, "from_high_reference": -0.226905, "from_low_reference": 0.184956 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1389.154936, "fair_value_reference": 1418.961209, "structural_low": 1130.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.030448, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": 0.017567, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.114915, "worst_return": -0.212549, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.014562, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.040686, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.544167, "worst_return": -0.282755, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.030766, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.037337, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.941879, "worst_return": -0.377525, "sufficient": true 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29.814247, "activity_lines": [ 1431.311475, 1417.15663, 1396.367121, 1389.651346 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1372.199951, "volume": 453523, "typical_volume": 830052.55, "trend": 1396.428267, "fair_value": 1414.004595, "relative_strength": -3.783642, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 4.399647, "energy": 8.788125, "activity_lines": [ 1410.387321, 1411.239384, 1397.059745, 1387.833606 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1339.0, "volume": 414108, "typical_volume": 815578.3, "trend": 1389.154936, "fair_value": 1418.961209, "relative_strength": -6.59387, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.323241, "energy": 14.681977, "activity_lines": [ 1380.4, 1399.37124, 1394.219992, 1384.128556 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }