{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f0ca3fa6-b18f-43ae-b2c0-0612a6fa158d", "symbol": "LU7", "name": "Lithium Universe Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -71.25, "architecture_energy": 78.548, "architecture_maturity": 61.603, "architecture_confidence": 93.82, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.33, "rotation_up": 20.3, "upward_expansion": 18.56, "deceleration": 39.0, "rotation_down": 66.32, "downward_expansion": 94.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.005233, 0.005636, 0.006671, 0.007454 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.005, "trend_reference": 0.008683, "distance_from_trend": -0.424184, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.016221, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.691749, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -54.298245, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.545455, "excess_performance": -0.60916, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.424184, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.176935, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.691749, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.132286, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.542982, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.320418, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.545455, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.858734, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6801551, "relative_activity": 1.11944, "balance": 0.858734, "dry_up": 0.945578, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.215385, "annualized_volatility": 0.78115, "from_high_reference": -0.736842, "from_low_reference": 0.25 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.008683, "fair_value_reference": 0.016221, "structural_low": 0.004, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 46, "median_return": -0.062271, "positive_rate": 0.282609, "directional_follow_through": 0.521739, "median_excess_return": -0.069539, "regime_survival": 0.913043, "best_return": 0.714286, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.25, "positive_rate": 0.266667, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.234999, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.333333, "worst_return": -0.527778, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.392857, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.435358, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.766667, "worst_return": -0.615385, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-01-19", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.115385, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-05-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.212121, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.722222, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 1.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", 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"method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }