{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f0cad7f2-ab6a-4c8d-93d8-26f28f22b537", "symbol": "SECR", "name": "NYLI MACKAY SECURITIZED INCOME ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 50.502, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.889, "architecture_energy": 58.123, "architecture_maturity": 6.682, "architecture_confidence": 93.672, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.71, "rotation_up": 13.18, "upward_expansion": 12.52, "deceleration": 38.79, "rotation_down": 65.61, "downward_expansion": 88.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.058645, 25.124939, 25.191193, 25.253517 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 25.1116, "trend_reference": 25.327658, "distance_from_trend": -0.008531, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 24.397053, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.029288, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.391168, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.013743, "excess_performance": -0.139368, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.008531, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000395, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.029288, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013858, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.113912, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013775, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.013743, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.323994, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13096, "relative_activity": 0.380179, "balance": 0.323994, "dry_up": 0.776346, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.008479, "annualized_volatility": 0.0422, "from_high_reference": -0.028605, "from_low_reference": 0.023324 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.327658, "fair_value_reference": 24.397053, "structural_low": 24.907402, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.574679, "energy": 67.651395, "activity_lines": [ 25.053262, 25.139212, 25.205072, 25.267981 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.1116, "volume": 13096, "typical_volume": 34446.95, "trend": 25.327658, "fair_value": 24.397053, "relative_strength": -11.391168, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.88886, "energy": 58.123451, "activity_lines": [ 25.058645, 25.124939, 25.191193, 25.253517 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }