{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f0cfa98d-b3af-4c5f-a9f5-6ffc314f1693", "symbol": "BTO", "name": "B2Gold Corp.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 78.46, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -13.87, "architecture_energy": 15.116, "architecture_maturity": 45.125, "architecture_confidence": 85.22, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.55, "rotation_up": 26.43, "upward_expansion": 16.29, "deceleration": 41.88, "rotation_down": 31.16, "downward_expansion": 63.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.878667, 5.773836, 5.981289, 6.163216 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 7.03, "trend_reference": 6.415162, "distance_from_trend": 0.095841, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.682813, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.501234, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.525567, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.022713, "excess_performance": -0.097708, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.095841, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016339, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.501234, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.086697, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.015256, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.085665, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.022713, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.766615, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 34995400, "relative_activity": 1.874049, "balance": 0.766615, "dry_up": 1.072053, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.087276, "annualized_volatility": 0.785463, "from_high_reference": -0.179451, "from_low_reference": 0.480593 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.415162, "fair_value_reference": 4.682813, "structural_low": 5.02, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.012839, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.011908, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.212719, "worst_return": -0.14675, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.000602, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.017877, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.298379, "worst_return": -0.138312, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.053859, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.065593, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.401684, "worst_return": -0.162013, "sufficient": true 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"trend": 6.42291, "fair_value": 4.652819, "relative_strength": -21.665027, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.458446, "energy": 59.884921, "activity_lines": [ 5.437333, 5.6381, 5.975387, 6.197728 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.25, "volume": 12504900, "typical_volume": 18963850.0, "trend": 6.392026, "fair_value": 4.661881, "relative_strength": -23.914292, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.073892, "energy": 66.989085, "activity_lines": [ 5.349333, 5.534528, 5.890266, 6.122056 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.03, "volume": 34995400, "typical_volume": 18673680.0, "trend": 6.415162, "fair_value": 4.682813, "relative_strength": -1.525567, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.869525, "energy": 15.115826, "activity_lines": [ 5.878667, 5.773836, 5.981289, 6.163216 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }