{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f0d30741-d2df-4950-98e1-db7f204de53e", "symbol": "PIGL", "name": "Power & Instrumental (Gujarat) Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 3.839, "architecture_energy": 7.335, "architecture_maturity": 40.182, "architecture_confidence": 61.484, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 72.93, "rotation_up": 28.52, "upward_expansion": 19.69, "deceleration": 59.49, "rotation_down": 39.61, "downward_expansion": 35.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 108.766001, 110.079637, 109.785286, 109.463011 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 112.260002, "trend_reference": 109.496, "distance_from_trend": 0.025243, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 132.383985, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.152012, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.455166, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.100409, "excess_performance": -0.0567, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.025243, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.077908, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.152012, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.093498, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.104552, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025222, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.100409, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.732913, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 507874, "relative_activity": 1.789298, "balance": 0.732913, "dry_up": 1.383187, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.092587, "annualized_volatility": 0.469736, "from_high_reference": -0.408223, "from_low_reference": 0.207097 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 109.496, "fair_value_reference": 132.383985, "structural_low": 93.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.097925, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.095909, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.335912, "worst_return": -0.314738, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.141195, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.165331, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.504972, "worst_return": -0.319376, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.290695, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.357633, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.804086, "worst_return": 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2.82249, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.263179, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.037017, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.073315, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.024906, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.029041, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": 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"activity_lines": [ 114.026666, 110.593817, 109.998095, 109.999978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 111.400002, "volume": 497609, "typical_volume": 271440.1, "trend": 110.790666, "fair_value": 131.086943, "relative_strength": -11.069555, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 22.516358, "energy": 24.00049, "activity_lines": [ 113.707334, 110.917636, 110.281476, 110.015268 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 105.290001, "volume": 312564, "typical_volume": 274622.2, "trend": 110.169333, "fair_value": 131.510501, "relative_strength": -13.795413, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 6.430921, "energy": 7.670631, "activity_lines": [ 110.895334, 110.292364, 109.947619, 109.660387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 104.32, "volume": 252367, "typical_volume": 275024.7, "trend": 109.47, "fair_value": 131.909066, "relative_strength": -16.392473, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.177949, "energy": 11.311284, "activity_lines": [ 108.228001, 109.481273, 109.499904, 109.28301 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 112.260002, "volume": 507874, "typical_volume": 283839.8, "trend": 109.496, "fair_value": 132.383985, "relative_strength": -10.455166, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 3.839146, "energy": 7.334919, "activity_lines": [ 108.766001, 110.079637, 109.785286, 109.463011 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }