{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f0d3d985-7c1f-4f64-bc7f-8bbfad98062e", "symbol": "KD", "name": "Kyndryl Holdings, Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 70.127, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 16.84, "architecture_energy": 26.231, "architecture_maturity": 19.666, "architecture_confidence": 53.093, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.8, "rotation_up": 45.73, "upward_expansion": 34.53, "deceleration": 45.93, "rotation_down": 14.1, "downward_expansion": 42.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.368667, 10.883236, 10.683929, 10.915194 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 12.155, "trend_reference": 12.059633, "distance_from_trend": 0.007908, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 22.272622, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.454263, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -44.78234, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.381425, "excess_performance": -0.555672, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.007908, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.247353, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.454263, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.077901, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.447823, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.181283, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.381425, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.021647, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3750, "relative_activity": 6.090134, "balance": 1.021647, "dry_up": 3.71214, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070373, "annualized_volatility": 1.035202, "from_high_reference": -0.572609, "from_low_reference": 0.393283 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.059633, "fair_value_reference": 22.272622, "structural_low": 8.724, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.139153, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.158886, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.139153, "worst_return": 0.139153, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.602852, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.56066, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.602852, "worst_return": 0.602852, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.111927, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.032356, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.111927, "worst_return": 0.111927, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.01815, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.243995, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.01815, "worst_return": 0.01815, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.013799, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.167667, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.05142, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.006999, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.085507, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.082541, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.216711, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.031954, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.186881, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.449662, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.078494, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.023071, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.566055, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 14.5, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1.05, "trend": 12.849333, "fair_value": 12.118366, "relative_strength": 25.300213, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 40.486843, "energy": 56.099874, 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"energy": 53.006605, "activity_lines": [ 10.106533, 10.142091, 10.490952, 11.611591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 10.45, "volume": 655, "typical_volume": 182.65, "trend": 13.6213, "fair_value": 22.305442, "relative_strength": -56.490174, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.026188, "energy": 41.2031, "activity_lines": [ 10.243867, 10.170109, 10.469862, 11.380647 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.345, "volume": 3385, "typical_volume": 340.45, "trend": 13.1948, "fair_value": 22.297013, "relative_strength": -54.728226, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.606901, "energy": 31.936563, "activity_lines": [ 10.3272, 10.204491, 10.439986, 11.169273 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.745, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 340.45, "trend": 12.7963, "fair_value": 22.28884, "relative_strength": -52.216378, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.786127, "energy": 20.419497, "activity_lines": [ 10.515267, 10.313964, 10.448681, 11.011221 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.595, "volume": 2008, "typical_volume": 428.25, "trend": 12.442133, "fair_value": 22.289833, "relative_strength": -46.901899, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 0.157648, "energy": 8.753365, "activity_lines": [ 10.909667, 10.556327, 10.541614, 10.933718 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.155, "volume": 3750, "typical_volume": 615.75, "trend": 12.059633, "fair_value": 22.272622, "relative_strength": -44.78234, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 16.84003, "energy": 26.230952, "activity_lines": [ 11.368667, 10.883236, 10.683929, 10.915194 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }