{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f0d71841-b3c1-478a-9654-8bc5666d3728", "symbol": "ARCH", "name": "Archer Limited", "exchange": "OSL", "country": "NO", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "OSEBX.OL", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 71.62, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -6.478, "architecture_energy": 12.503, "architecture_maturity": 15.174, "architecture_confidence": 60.498, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.59, "rotation_up": 37.84, "upward_expansion": 24.69, "deceleration": 50.33, "rotation_down": 19.65, "downward_expansion": 27.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.69, 24.287273, 24.900889, 25.165309 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 25.0, "trend_reference": 25.144113, "distance_from_trend": -0.005731, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.011759, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.135757, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.866582, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.055578, "excess_performance": -0.069416, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.005731, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040564, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.135757, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.115919, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.048666, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.089976, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.055578, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.745929, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 339994, "relative_activity": 0.525467, "balance": 0.745929, "dry_up": 0.585289, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.051909, "annualized_volatility": 0.273278, "from_high_reference": -0.153793, "from_low_reference": 0.346024 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.144113, "fair_value_reference": 22.011759, "structural_low": 22.5, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.017403, "positive_rate": 0.578947, "directional_follow_through": 0.578947, "median_excess_return": -0.008418, "regime_survival": 0.473684, "best_return": 0.131818, "worst_return": -0.229263, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.01019, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.03575, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.104934, "worst_return": -0.239615, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.014084, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.036289, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.144252, 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"active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.087728, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.109443, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.059846, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.154472, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.006451, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": 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"relative_strength": -4.144975, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.305709, "energy": 52.308738, "activity_lines": [ 23.63, 24.226429, 25.267511, 25.234789 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 24.0, "volume": 438806, "typical_volume": 693981.85, "trend": 24.846631, "fair_value": 21.927066, "relative_strength": -5.877853, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.004229, "energy": 39.473657, "activity_lines": [ 23.783334, 24.058176, 25.110147, 25.186819 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.0, "volume": 422452, "typical_volume": 673376.25, "trend": 24.973545, "fair_value": 21.959633, "relative_strength": -4.297255, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.219107, "energy": 17.436477, "activity_lines": [ 24.25, 24.126364, 25.056281, 25.196714 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.549999, "volume": 313550, "typical_volume": 650872.55, "trend": 25.063235, "fair_value": 21.98341, "relative_strength": -6.378985, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -11.18783, "energy": 11.363415, "activity_lines": [ 24.433333, 24.152727, 24.956777, 25.169388 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.0, "volume": 339994, "typical_volume": 647031.9, "trend": 25.144113, "fair_value": 22.011759, "relative_strength": -4.866582, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -6.477863, "energy": 12.503398, "activity_lines": [ 24.69, 24.287273, 24.900889, 25.165309 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }