{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f0e07e21-95e6-4bdc-aadc-db050f82c28d", "symbol": "FDA", "name": "Fidia S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -41.276, "architecture_energy": 55.437, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 58.382, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.93, "rotation_up": 26.0, "upward_expansion": 33.0, "deceleration": 53.0, "rotation_down": 40.7, "downward_expansion": 55.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0092, 0.009131, 0.00844, 0.016404 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.0088, "trend_reference": 0.03619, "distance_from_trend": -0.756839, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 26.847588, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.999672, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -93.416273, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.923478, "excess_performance": -1.09437, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.756839, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.574386, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.999672, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000212, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.934163, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048011, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.923478, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.78767, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20967438, "relative_activity": 0.298892, "balance": 1.78767, "dry_up": 0.637173, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.27972, "annualized_volatility": 1.814599, "from_high_reference": -0.971795, "from_low_reference": 1.933333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.03619, "fair_value_reference": 26.847588, "structural_low": 0.003, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 52, "median_return": -0.047947, "positive_rate": 0.288462, "directional_follow_through": 0.711538, "median_excess_return": -0.056996, "regime_survival": 0.942308, "best_return": 0.758621, "worst_return": -0.817814, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.131086, "positive_rate": 0.058824, "directional_follow_through": 0.941176, "median_excess_return": -0.251216, "regime_survival": 0.882353, "best_return": 0.344828, "worst_return": -0.878049, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.409453, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.44583, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.168539, "worst_return": -0.957187, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.794826, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.981069, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": -0.316372, "worst_return": -0.952791, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2021-07-09", "end": "2021-07-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.00431, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2021-08-06", "end": "2021-08-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.066372, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2021-09-03", "end": "2021-10-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.098765, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2021-10-15", "end": "2022-05-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.24186, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2022-06-03", "end": "2023-01-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.177778, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-01-20", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.647458, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.182716, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.369492, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Extended", 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"modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.956367, "energy": 61.120687, "activity_lines": [ 0.009373, 0.008502, 0.009076, 0.023123 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.0094, "volume": 46297350, "typical_volume": 68657547.7, "trend": 0.043383, "fair_value": 28.488498, "relative_strength": -93.439054, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.608528, "energy": 57.312493, "activity_lines": [ 0.009373, 0.008829, 0.008715, 0.020616 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0092, "volume": 31771585, "typical_volume": 69613572.2, "trend": 0.039903, "fair_value": 27.668044, "relative_strength": -93.289575, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.00468, "energy": 56.264711, "activity_lines": [ 0.00936, 0.009047, 0.008542, 0.01841 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0088, "volume": 20967438, "typical_volume": 70150642.9, "trend": 0.03619, "fair_value": 26.847588, "relative_strength": -93.416273, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.276406, "energy": 55.437026, "activity_lines": [ 0.0092, 0.009131, 0.00844, 0.016404 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }