{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f0e92622-576c-4fd8-a20e-b594e1713291", "symbol": "HBBD", "name": "Alibaba Group Holding Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -19.585, "architecture_energy": 22.683, "architecture_maturity": 72.298, "architecture_confidence": 69.269, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.43, "rotation_up": 37.46, "upward_expansion": 21.61, "deceleration": 44.15, "rotation_down": 19.53, "downward_expansion": 55.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.826, 3.648277, 3.766236, 3.917765 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 4.04, "trend_reference": 4.213738, "distance_from_trend": -0.041231, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.229548, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.044815, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.97047, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.203156, "excess_performance": -0.357991, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.041231, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.101465, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.044815, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.08211, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.259705, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.157416, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.203156, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.152289, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2012000, "relative_activity": 2.088719, "balance": 1.152289, "dry_up": 1.640065, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.085038, "annualized_volatility": 0.441996, "from_high_reference": -0.348387, "from_low_reference": 0.37415 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.213738, "fair_value_reference": 4.229548, "structural_low": 2.94, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.218121, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.141728, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.218121, "worst_return": 0.218121, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.355705, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-12-20", "close": 2.783801, "volume": 339400, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-12-27", "close": 2.872332, "volume": 297800, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": 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"trend": 4.275071, "fair_value": 4.23668, "relative_strength": -32.760752, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.543302, "energy": 40.023462, "activity_lines": [ 3.535333, 3.531112, 3.760065, 3.959989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.82, "volume": 1193400, "typical_volume": 941180.0, "trend": 4.239404, "fair_value": 4.231778, "relative_strength": -29.407629, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.43555, "energy": 25.276586, "activity_lines": [ 3.672, 3.56702, 3.751436, 3.93063 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.04, "volume": 2012000, "typical_volume": 963270.0, "trend": 4.213738, "fair_value": 4.229548, "relative_strength": -25.97047, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.584672, "energy": 22.683108, "activity_lines": [ 3.826, 3.648277, 3.766236, 3.917765 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }