{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f0ecae67-1c8c-4894-85ae-8412f647366c", "symbol": "ADOC", "name": "Adocia SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.924, "architecture_energy": 64.084, "architecture_maturity": 79.1, "architecture_confidence": 90.828, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.29, "rotation_up": 25.05, "upward_expansion": 14.22, "deceleration": 41.08, "rotation_down": 51.35, "downward_expansion": 85.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.970667, 4.029273, 4.271719, 4.579249 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.136, "trend_reference": 5.071367, "distance_from_trend": -0.184441, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.863788, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.397417, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -39.15442, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.366616, "excess_performance": -0.419927, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.184441, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.177042, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.397417, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.093689, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.391544, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.130896, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.366616, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.465934, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 375861, "relative_activity": 0.496865, "balance": 1.465934, "dry_up": 0.456994, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.091858, "annualized_volatility": 0.51081, "from_high_reference": -0.666452, "from_low_reference": 0.145706 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.071367, "fair_value_reference": 6.863788, "structural_low": 3.61, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": -0.046549, "positive_rate": 0.457143, "directional_follow_through": 0.514286, "median_excess_return": -0.043198, "regime_survival": 0.828571, "best_return": 0.772487, "worst_return": -0.318657, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.180328, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.155373, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 1.285714, "worst_return": -0.299065, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.133038, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.193426, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.839252, "worst_return": -0.442455, "sufficient": true }, { 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"regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.210526, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.190751, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.228972, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.294737, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.146067, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.352055, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.127803, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.213844, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.031204, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.35375, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 9.4, "volume": 1675508, "typical_volume": 473246.15, "trend": 3.916, "fair_value": 6.501699, "relative_strength": 131.104073, "stage": 2, "regime": 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-71.54125, "energy": 62.759817, "activity_lines": [ 3.997467, 4.175018, 4.449743, 4.817346 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.84, "volume": 305340, "typical_volume": 815100.4, "trend": 5.2245, "fair_value": 6.888109, "relative_strength": -42.346238, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.013088, "energy": 77.146045, "activity_lines": [ 3.919867, 4.081018, 4.365052, 4.722604 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.0, "volume": 350876, "typical_volume": 781305.35, "trend": 5.1335, "fair_value": 6.876955, "relative_strength": -40.310538, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.22809, "energy": 75.789722, "activity_lines": [ 3.914933, 4.035418, 4.307314, 4.643604 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.136, "volume": 375861, "typical_volume": 756464.45, "trend": 5.071367, "fair_value": 6.863788, "relative_strength": -39.15442, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.923808, "energy": 64.084015, "activity_lines": [ 3.970667, 4.029273, 4.271719, 4.579249 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }