{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f0f50dde-4958-4bc1-9b4d-a927ba40f3bb", "symbol": "CFO", "name": "VictoryShares US 500 Enhanced Volatility Wtd ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 83.746, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 86.401, "architecture_energy": 71.793, "architecture_maturity": 35.216, "architecture_confidence": 68.543, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 1.38, "rotation_up": 74.8, "upward_expansion": 90.45, "deceleration": 48.38, "rotation_down": 18.12, "downward_expansion": 12.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 81.25993, 80.683897, 79.468926, 78.495732 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 82.5485, "trend_reference": 77.495559, "distance_from_trend": 0.065203, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 67.957498, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.214708, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.393682, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.067647, "excess_performance": -0.119807, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.065203, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030277, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.214708, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.052925, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.043937, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0816, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.067647, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.557762, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 26289, "relative_activity": 0.980459, "balance": 1.557762, "dry_up": 0.916712, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017012, "annualized_volatility": 0.096977, "from_high_reference": -0.00205, "from_low_reference": 0.175835 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 77.495559, "fair_value_reference": 67.957498, "structural_low": 72.399123, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.013884, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.001632, "regime_survival": 0.678571, "best_return": 0.055001, "worst_return": -0.047861, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.021827, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.000691, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.081366, "worst_return": -0.072255, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.057673, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.040777, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.082406, "worst_return": -0.141167, "sufficient": true }, { 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"direction": 68.872143, "energy": 81.684357, "activity_lines": [ 80.240077, 79.601905, 78.367332, 77.665722 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 80.568868, "volume": 30098, "typical_volume": 28172.75, "trend": 77.020166, "fair_value": 67.673148, "relative_strength": -1.699426, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.099937, "energy": 79.007104, "activity_lines": [ 80.432497, 79.897274, 78.689698, 77.908276 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 80.834933, "volume": 19848, "typical_volume": 27447.2, "trend": 77.257695, "fair_value": 67.810161, "relative_strength": -1.762972, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.0244, "energy": 64.752993, "activity_lines": [ 80.59558, 80.161844, 79.013965, 78.15439 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 82.5485, "volume": 26289, "typical_volume": 26812.95, "trend": 77.495559, "fair_value": 67.957498, "relative_strength": -4.393682, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.400661, "energy": 71.793052, "activity_lines": [ 81.25993, 80.683897, 79.468926, 78.495732 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }