{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f0fb1b02-a9c5-4ce7-847f-20482cc847f3", "symbol": "FGBI", "name": "First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 24.481, "architecture_energy": 16.992, "architecture_maturity": 24.53, "architecture_confidence": 89.447, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.68, "rotation_up": 19.24, "upward_expansion": 50.8, "deceleration": 93.06, "rotation_down": 33.64, "downward_expansion": 19.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.608667, 9.850753, 9.766278, 9.557845 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 9.6, "trend_reference": 9.26232, "distance_from_trend": 0.036457, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.403575, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.020888, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.455813, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.077354, "excess_performance": -0.110099, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.036457, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.201554, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.020888, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043147, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.024558, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048251, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.077354, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.209265, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 55550, "relative_activity": 0.305495, "balance": 2.209265, "dry_up": 0.677899, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.092465, "annualized_volatility": 0.344275, "from_high_reference": -0.127648, "from_low_reference": 1.236636 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.26232, "fair_value_reference": 9.403575, "structural_low": 7.817707, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.04936, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": -0.067619, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.214708, "worst_return": -0.349843, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.125179, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.213351, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.072898, "worst_return": -0.427531, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.393882, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.564021, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.162856, "worst_return": -0.490364, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.29, "volume": 120923, "typical_volume": 178137.35, "trend": 9.054385, "fair_value": 9.424001, "relative_strength": 4.565506, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.253848, "energy": 15.564585, "activity_lines": [ 9.794, 9.984866, 9.747077, 9.497167 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.59, "volume": 84022, "typical_volume": 181016.95, "trend": 9.195106, "fair_value": 9.412125, "relative_strength": 7.443064, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.996063, "energy": 17.88922, "activity_lines": [ 9.662, 9.923885, 9.759268, 9.531723 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.6, "volume": 55550, "typical_volume": 181836.05, "trend": 9.26232, "fair_value": 9.403575, "relative_strength": 2.455813, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.4807, "energy": 16.992358, "activity_lines": [ 9.608667, 9.850753, 9.766278, 9.557845 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }