{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f0fd9c4f-53f8-484a-868c-bb909ecc88b0", "symbol": "300257", "name": "Kaishan Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 58.542, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -38.904, "architecture_energy": 74.143, "architecture_maturity": 22.833, "architecture_confidence": 70.532, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.08, "rotation_up": 16.08, "upward_expansion": 26.29, "deceleration": 43.01, "rotation_down": 72.63, "downward_expansion": 65.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.431333, 22.278318, 25.506548, 26.188265 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 19.450001, "trend_reference": 25.438628, "distance_from_trend": -0.235415, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.430912, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.347801, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.614698, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.140763, "excess_performance": 0.133363, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.235415, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.139388, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.347801, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.213232, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.086147, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.782407, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.140763, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.200503, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 43903015, "relative_activity": 0.822694, "balance": 0.200503, "dry_up": 1.111977, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 7 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.183549, "annualized_volatility": 0.775913, "from_high_reference": -0.492047, "from_low_reference": 0.531496 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.438628, "fair_value_reference": 14.430912, "structural_low": 16.6, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.041364, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.024404, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.208283, "worst_return": -0.018919, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.151634, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.121903, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.529233, "worst_return": -0.000207, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.032772, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.112592, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.878912, "worst_return": -0.25888, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.066351, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.1123, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.042631, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.137615, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.203062, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.148148, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.239807, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.675441, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.269107, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.129501, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 14.166196, "volume": 9454421, "typical_volume": 22288830.35, "trend": 15.377212, "fair_value": 15.261077, "relative_strength": -8.692658, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 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28.768994, 29.341711, 27.549393 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 27.200001, "volume": 62283124, "typical_volume": 66877132.5, "trend": 24.778628, "fair_value": 14.312809, "relative_strength": 23.024513, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.300018, "energy": 10.300215, "activity_lines": [ 27.624374, 28.293696, 29.188955, 27.732987 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 20.57, "volume": 57270890, "typical_volume": 64286178.5, "trend": 24.987961, "fair_value": 14.35018, "relative_strength": 1.544624, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": -25.009042, "energy": 31.594543, "activity_lines": [ 25.354, 26.675829, 28.365055, 27.461462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.0, "volume": 70705509, "typical_volume": 63681787.5, "trend": 25.157961, "fair_value": 14.379159, "relative_strength": -6.959587, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -45.923894, "energy": 61.186635, "activity_lines": [ 22.922, 25.027134, 27.41168, 27.075142 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.219999, "volume": 65483059, "typical_volume": 56988829.45, "trend": 25.258628, "fair_value": 14.396728, "relative_strength": -14.578761, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -58.11482, "energy": 77.173317, "activity_lines": [ 20.494, 23.320763, 26.318781, 26.563016 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.450001, "volume": 43903015, "typical_volume": 53364958.6, "trend": 25.438628, "fair_value": 14.430912, "relative_strength": -8.614698, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.903622, "energy": 74.143388, "activity_lines": [ 19.431333, 22.278318, 25.506548, 26.188265 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }