{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f1058087-1aa8-469c-ac0f-5d2f62055715", "symbol": "GLL", "name": "PROSHARES ULTRASHORT GOLD", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 47.284, "architecture_energy": 36.24, "architecture_maturity": 49.587, "architecture_confidence": 58.954, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.78, "rotation_up": 47.92, "upward_expansion": 71.13, "deceleration": 59.32, "rotation_down": 27.23, "downward_expansion": 18.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.302667, 25.499455, 24.160143, 22.976817 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 22.91, "trend_reference": 21.626333, "distance_from_trend": 0.059357, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 61.837908, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.629515, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -21.571833, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.222519, "excess_performance": 0.096894, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.059357, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024244, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.629515, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.085409, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.215718, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.222912, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.222519, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.941887, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14673715, "relative_activity": 0.949127, "balance": 1.941887, "dry_up": 0.586291, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.100707, "annualized_volatility": 0.480891, "from_high_reference": -0.488388, "from_low_reference": 0.46859 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.626333, "fair_value_reference": 61.837908, "structural_low": 15.87, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.027362, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.095827, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.109912, "worst_return": -0.152491, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.061362, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.098001, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.080933, "worst_return": -0.25846, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.19194, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.276039, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.185435, "worst_return": -0.198445, 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}, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 26.99, "volume": 7020786, "typical_volume": 19847863.4, "trend": 21.552333, "fair_value": 63.563613, "relative_strength": -8.835725, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.8428, "energy": 80.543411, "activity_lines": [ 26.142667, 25.186545, 23.351381, 22.270043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 26.4, "volume": 5011325, "typical_volume": 17471442.95, "trend": 21.642667, "fair_value": 63.013741, "relative_strength": -8.80783, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.90026, "energy": 62.643448, "activity_lines": [ 26.327333, 25.586909, 23.771524, 22.582796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.5, "volume": 9550943, "typical_volume": 17055221.3, "trend": 21.66, "fair_value": 62.448997, "relative_strength": -7.856923, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.29314, "energy": 55.573717, "activity_lines": [ 26.421333, 25.913091, 24.157, 22.896172 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.91, "volume": 14673715, "typical_volume": 15460220.7, "trend": 21.626333, "fair_value": 61.837908, "relative_strength": -21.571833, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.284206, "energy": 36.240376, "activity_lines": [ 25.302667, 25.499455, 24.160143, 22.976817 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }