{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f10b9dd6-4910-4c23-a197-8f789e01e281", "symbol": "7299", "name": "Csop Asset Management Limited- CSOP Gold Futures Daily (2x) Leveraged Product ETF", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.396, "architecture_energy": 57.845, "architecture_maturity": 64.136, "architecture_confidence": 91.103, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.72, "rotation_up": 27.81, "upward_expansion": 10.56, "deceleration": 60.1, "rotation_down": 52.52, "downward_expansion": 83.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.657333, 21.753818, 23.557429, 25.447527 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 23.299999, "trend_reference": 27.987333, "distance_from_trend": -0.167481, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.137468, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.443845, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.78633, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.269593, "excess_performance": -0.236011, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.167481, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041092, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.443845, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.507882, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.097863, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.255348, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.269593, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.991972, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7750100, "relative_activity": 1.205824, "balance": 0.991972, "dry_up": 0.86901, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.084054, "annualized_volatility": 0.492991, "from_high_reference": -0.463134, "from_low_reference": 0.424205 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.987333, "fair_value_reference": 16.137468, "structural_low": 20.040001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.007488, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.024949, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.180521, "worst_return": -0.141406, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.027082, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.113727, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.254265, "worst_return": -0.059587, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.116993, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.168747, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.179526, "worst_return": 0.054459, "sufficient": false }, { 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 20.280001, "volume": 5848100, "typical_volume": 7944267.0, "trend": 28.610667, "fair_value": 15.864231, "relative_strength": -17.163443, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.872838, "energy": 90.888348, "activity_lines": [ 21.336001, 22.537819, 24.836953, 26.740946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.780001, "volume": 5889200, "typical_volume": 7031074.45, "trend": 28.35, "fair_value": 15.948622, "relative_strength": -16.739789, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.247429, "energy": 78.471151, "activity_lines": [ 21.017334, 22.000001, 24.254286, 26.235742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.98, "volume": 2853900, "typical_volume": 6710640.6, "trend": 28.147334, "fair_value": 16.035192, "relative_strength": -19.155621, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.86075, "energy": 66.783562, "activity_lines": [ 20.954667, 21.615273, 23.762572, 25.760258 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.299999, "volume": 7750100, "typical_volume": 6427225.6, "trend": 27.987333, "fair_value": 16.137468, "relative_strength": -9.78633, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.395784, "energy": 57.844944, "activity_lines": [ 21.657333, 21.753818, 23.557429, 25.447527 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }