{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f10bb116-5403-428a-826d-e2e55580b0af", "symbol": "CBO", "name": "Cobram Estate Olives Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 81.524, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -22.357, "architecture_energy": 47.443, "architecture_maturity": 3.57, "architecture_confidence": 78.197, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.3, "rotation_up": 16.97, "upward_expansion": 25.56, "deceleration": 49.39, "rotation_down": 66.8, "downward_expansion": 50.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.380667, 3.551636, 3.693571, 3.647161 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.53, "trend_reference": 3.600667, "distance_from_trend": -0.019626, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.312305, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.526616, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.600529, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.035191, "excess_performance": -0.028515, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.019626, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04186, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.526616, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.289287, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.026005, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.27738, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.035191, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.500004, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2283855, "relative_activity": 0.765763, "balance": 0.500004, "dry_up": 1.07825, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.096099, "annualized_volatility": 0.378153, "from_high_reference": -0.157518, "from_low_reference": 0.356625 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.600667, "fair_value_reference": 2.312305, "structural_low": 2.91, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.03507, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.011243, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.080214, "worst_return": -0.064327, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.201755, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.121163, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.333334, "worst_return": 0.070176, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.551565, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.444537, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.883334, "worst_return": 0.219796, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.463755, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.365205, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.463755, "worst_return": 0.463755, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.102279, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.014634, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.058674, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.038889, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.042781, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.029851, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.282668, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.328947, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.170918, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.232704, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.010499, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.18797, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.187445, "volume": 267852, "typical_volume": 514701.9, "trend": 1.225922, "fair_value": 1.484766, "relative_strength": -10.149177, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.924034, 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"2026-07-24", "close": 3.29, "volume": 3388568, "typical_volume": 2986263.5, "trend": 3.640333, "fair_value": 2.2841, "relative_strength": -3.438844, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.211772, "energy": 29.472621, "activity_lines": [ 3.518, 3.691273, 3.751476, 3.678387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.24, "volume": 4055503, "typical_volume": 2959395.95, "trend": 3.613667, "fair_value": 2.297258, "relative_strength": -7.391961, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.231453, "energy": 43.081574, "activity_lines": [ 3.376, 3.588909, 3.709143, 3.652559 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.53, "volume": 2283855, "typical_volume": 2982457.65, "trend": 3.600667, "fair_value": 2.312305, "relative_strength": -2.600529, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.357025, "energy": 47.44325, "activity_lines": [ 3.380667, 3.551636, 3.693571, 3.647161 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }