{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f10dd9e5-c5c4-4d17-8439-91fc2cc533a0", "symbol": "ELECON", "name": "Elecon Engineering Company Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 73.683, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -25.217, "architecture_energy": 50.587, "architecture_maturity": 5.018, "architecture_confidence": 81.789, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.55, "rotation_up": 14.04, "upward_expansion": 23.47, "deceleration": 53.57, "rotation_down": 69.43, "downward_expansion": 50.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 437.976664, 468.725285, 486.316582, 473.849175 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 437.850006, "trend_reference": 455.012946, "distance_from_trend": -0.03772, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 520.908782, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.15945, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.589732, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.007353, "excess_performance": 0.036356, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.03772, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000969, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.15945, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.257443, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.095897, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.199691, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.007353, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.662426, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2835293, "relative_activity": 0.875966, "balance": 0.662426, "dry_up": 0.816982, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.094498, "annualized_volatility": 0.508171, "from_high_reference": -0.307761, "from_low_reference": 0.247435 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 455.012946, "fair_value_reference": 520.908782, "structural_low": 351.000182, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.091443, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.050345, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.160877, "worst_return": 0.022009, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.094511, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.116516, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.363507, "worst_return": -0.174485, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.929963, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.871338, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.67237, "worst_return": 0.187556, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.178838, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.217894, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.011992, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.020695, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.056112, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.022942, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": -2.456761, "energy": 17.571124, "activity_lines": [ 471.526666, 496.021097, 495.40943, 477.383148 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 419.049988, "volume": 2744233, "typical_volume": 3239302.7, "trend": 454.496176, "fair_value": 520.755526, "relative_strength": -13.172534, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.751195, "energy": 39.167914, "activity_lines": [ 448.179995, 479.639686, 490.06177, 474.923121 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 437.850006, "volume": 2835293, "typical_volume": 3236762.05, "trend": 455.012946, "fair_value": 520.908782, "relative_strength": -9.589732, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.216891, "energy": 50.586611, "activity_lines": [ 437.976664, 468.725285, 486.316582, 473.849175 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }