{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f1118a57-37b1-47fc-a707-0ec2adcf5a4b", "symbol": "SUPV", "name": "Grupo Supervielle SA", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -16.048, "architecture_energy": 14.172, "architecture_maturity": 24.296, "architecture_confidence": 62.173, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 65.59, "rotation_up": 17.54, "upward_expansion": 17.86, "deceleration": 68.16, "rotation_down": 44.01, "downward_expansion": 29.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.246, 9.565636, 9.425619, 9.358925 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 8.6, "trend_reference": 9.537667, "distance_from_trend": -0.098312, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.58115, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.002197, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -18.040556, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.218892, "excess_performance": -0.344517, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.098312, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052079, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.002197, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008339, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.180406, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.107923, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.218892, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.948461, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2416714, "relative_activity": 0.704926, "balance": 0.948461, "dry_up": 0.624604, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.149264, "annualized_volatility": 0.632537, "from_high_reference": -0.365314, "from_low_reference": 0.894273 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.537667, "fair_value_reference": 8.58115, "structural_low": 7.33, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.081789, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.075053, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.213483, "worst_return": -0.156682, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.110681, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.062205, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.302198, "worst_return": -0.397849, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.098047, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.082262, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.236263, "worst_return": -0.136713, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.060329, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.154009, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.131263, "worst_return": -0.25192, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.165079, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.953146, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.135193, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.127496, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.37044, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.073269, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.083264, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.220532, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.207152, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.121381, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.185696, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.034545, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.031348, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.114315, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.64638, "volume": 4340420, "typical_volume": 2334563.7, "trend": 2.533468, "fair_value": 1.98494, "relative_strength": 8.947852, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", 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}, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.46, "volume": 2254367, "typical_volume": 3459996.25, "trend": 9.651333, "fair_value": 8.545392, "relative_strength": -7.50085, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 2.684362, "energy": 5.313729, "activity_lines": [ 9.586667, 9.806545, 9.486619, 9.426753 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.6, "volume": 2416714, "typical_volume": 3428321.7, "trend": 9.537667, "fair_value": 8.58115, "relative_strength": -18.040556, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.048378, "energy": 14.172277, "activity_lines": [ 9.246, 9.565636, 9.425619, 9.358925 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }